Early-season game predictions

USC vs. Southern Miss – Thursday

The Gamecocks didn’t receive any favors when North Carolina bailed out on USC to play LSU in Atlanta. ESPN officials helped USC land Southern Miss as a replacement, arguably a tougher opening-game draw for the Gamecocks than N.C. State the past two seasons.

The Golden Eagles were picked by most preseason magazines to win their division in Conference USA, and coach Larry Fedora has talked about surprising the Gamecocks on national TV. But unless Southern Miss improves defensively (25.8 points and 261 passing yards per game in 2009), USC will win its 11th consecutive opener.

Prediction: USC 24, Southern Miss 13

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USC vs. Georgia – Sept. 11

The early matchup with the Bulldogs usually is a good gauge for USC. The Gamecocks had a chance to win in Athens last year, rolling up 427 yards on a night when quarterback Stephen Garcia attempted 53 passes. But Garcia’s final throw was knocked down in the end zone, allowing Georgia to hold on for a 41-37 victory.

Georgia’s defense should be better under first-year coordinator Todd Grantham, the former Dallas Cowboys assistant who installed a 3-4 scheme. And though the Bulldogs return 10 offensive starters, the lone newcomer — quarterback Aaron Murray — will be making his first SEC start in a hostile stadium. In a high-noon matchup, Garcia gets his gunslinger’s revenge.

Prediction: USC 27, Georgia 20

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USC vs. Furman – Sept. 18

USC went a long time without scheduling Furman after the Paladins upset the Gamecocks 28-23 in 1982. Steve Spurrier’s squad has much more talent than its Southern Conference adversary, although Wofford has hung with the Gamecocks because of its triple-option offense.

Furman has no such gimmicks, and it has a new starting quarterback in UCLA transfer Chris Forcier. Barring turnovers, USC should build a big lead and give plenty of backups a chance to play.

Prediction: USC 38, Furman 10

Camp review: Good, bad and ugly

(A version of the following ran in Monday’s editions, but figured I’d include it here for reader comments on what the Gamecocks need to accomplish over the next 10 days.)

Preseason camp is over, classes have started, and South Carolina opens its season Sept. 2 against Southern Miss.

The State examines the highs and lows from preseason drills:

Offense

SETTLED: Where did all these receivers come from? USC was in good shape with Alshon Jeffery and Tori Gurley returning. But strong showings from freshman Ace Sanders and a number of redshirt freshmen have made this the Gamecocks’ deepest position. …

Freshman tailback Marcus Lattimore has lived up to his hype. The sturdy back runs hard, never begs out of a drill and has been surprisingly adept at pass-blocking, something he was seldom asked to do at Byrnes High. If he doesn’t start against Southern Miss, he will get the bulk of the carries.

UNSETTLED: It’s a little surprising Stephen Garcia hasn’t taken control of the quarterback battle. That might speak more to Connor Shaw’s abilities than anything Garcia has or hasn’t done, although Spurrier continues to question how much Garcia studies the playbook. …

First-year offensive line coach Shawn Elliott is beginning to see his unit gain confidence. And while the starting front five should be solid, injuries have hurt the line’s depth. …

Weslye Saunders’ performance Saturday (four catches for 63 yards and a TD) further demonstrated how critical the big tight end is to the offense. If the NCAA rules Saunders must sit more than a game, it would be a huge blow.

QUOTE: “We’ve got an excellent group of receivers that are running good routes. They catch about everything if they have a chance at it. We should have a good offense, but our quarterback play’s got to be good. And right now it’s not real good,” – Spurrier.

Defense

SETTLED: When discussing the daily battles with USC’s secondary, Jeffery reminded reporters the Gamecocks had one of the nation’s top pass defenses in 2009. Cornerback Stephon Gilmore is on a couple of preseason watch lists for national defensive awards, and Chris Culliver, the other corner, says he hopes quarterbacks will test him. …

Ellis Johnson, assistant head coach for defense, was concerned about where the pass rush would come from when Eric Norwood left. But the defense sacked Garcia five times in the opening scrimmage. Sophomore end Devin Taylor appears ready for a breakout year.

UNSETTLED: Linebacker Shaq Wilson, one of the cogs of the defense, has been sidelined nearly the entire preseason with a hamstring injury. Wilson, the team’s leading tackler in 2009, is shifting from the middle to Norwood’s weak-side spot. It is imperative Wilson return at full speed for the blitz schemes to be effective. …

Many of the second-teamers have not challenged the starters as much as Johnson would have liked. With no clear backup to DeVonte Holloman at strong safety, coaches are cross-training D.J. Swearinger at both safety spots.

QUOTE: “I’ve seen Shaq Wilson one-and-a-half practices. And when he’s not in there our (defensive) quarterback’s gone,” – Johnson.

Special teams

SETTLED: Spencer Lanning gives USC a reliable place-kicker and punter. The senior from Rock Hill is on the Groza Award watch list after making 17-of-20 field goals in 2009.

UNSETTLED: Special teams coordinator Shane Beamer believes the kickoff coverage will be better after struggling last season. But it’s hard to mimic game-speed special teams in practice without running the risk of injury.

QUOTE: “We don’t get to play four preseason games like those NFL teams do. … The first time you line up and cover a kick, it’s the first time you’ve done it for real. The first time you go out and kick a field goal, it’s the first time you’ve done it for real,” – Beamer.

Players pay up and leave local hotel

Thursday was moving day at South Carolina as a number of additional players moved out of the Whitney Hotel a week after NCAA investigators questioned their living arrangements there.

Tight end Weslye Saunders, whose alleged dealings with agents drew the attention of the NCAA, was one of the players told to vacate the property. Officials want to know whether players received free rooms or discounted rates at a hotel that features limousine service.

If so, that likely would constitute an extra benefit.

Spurrier said after Thursday’s scrimmage that players were asked to vacate the Whitney and settle any outstanding balances. Spurrier, who stayed at the hotel before he and his wife moved into their Columbia-area house in 2005, said he knew players were living at the Whitney but “didn’t know all the arrangements.”

“But all of our guys are going to pay their bill and hopefully go live somewhere else,” Spurrier said. “That’s what we hope happens – that they pay their bills up and go live somewhere else. That’s about all I can say about it.”

As many as seven to 10 players were staying at the hotel, located along the Devine Street shopping corridor. Sources said a couple of players were in good financial standing with the hotel but were asked to move out anyway.

Spurrier would not say specifically whether any players owed several months of back rent.

“I can’t go into all that,” Spurrier said. “They’re going to pay their bills and move out is what we have suggested to them to do.”

By having players pay off their balances and leave the hotel, it appears USC is trying to minimize potential penalties from the NCAA. If the school believes players were staying there at free or discounted rates, expect officials to self-report it as secondary violations and point to the fact that players have made restitution.

The NCAA can choose to accept the school’s findings or reject them. Given that both NCAA and USC officials have said they are working cooperatively on this investigation, there likely has been dialogue about the hotel situation and USC’s plans to remedy it.

QB battle heats up

Remember last spring when Steve Spurrier was calling out Stephen Garcia any chance he got while mentioning Connor Shaw as a viable backup quarterback who would push Garcia?

The armchair psychologists, this one included, surmised that Spurrier was trying to get in Garcia’s head to make sure the Tampa right-hander did not go through the motions again during the summer conditioning and passing drills.

Certainly, motivation was part of Spurrier’s message. But the part about Shaw being a legitimate option should Garcia falter?

That’s looking more accurate every time the Gamecocks scrimmage.

For the second consecutive scrimmage, the challenger outplayed the incumbent. And in the only vote that matters, Spurrier left the door wide open that Shaw, a true freshman and son of a football coach, could be the opening-game starter Sept. 2 when Southern Miss visits Columbia.

The fact that Shaw took the first snaps under center Thursday only added to the intrigue.

“Definitely Connor’s going to play in the first game,” Spurrier said. “Right now we’re planning on both of them playing and go from there. Statistically, he’s been the best quarterback on the team in every scrimmage. So that’s where we are with that.”

On the opening series, Shaw directed a five-play, 70-yards scoring drive that he capped with a 6-yard touchdown run. He book-ended his day with another TD drive, hitting freshman Nick Jones for a 17-yard scoring strike.

The highlight of the drive was a 53-yard toss to Kenny Miles on a play when Shaw scrambled to his right to avoid the pass rush. Shaw’s stat line: 5-of-8 for 111 yards and one TD; no picks.

Meanwhile, Garcia finished the day 11-of-16 for 113 yards. But he was picked off twice by safety Akeem Auguste.

Asked who would start the opener, Spurrier said he had two more weeks to make that decision. But he seemed to indicate that Shaw has the edge at this point.

“Well, like I said, Connor has outplayed him in the scrimmages,” he said. “We’ll see how it goes the next two weeks. Stephen may play the best. So we’ll see how it goes.”

Should be an interesting two weeks.

Scrimmage No. 1 a sack-fest

Not going to try to do any in-depth scrimmage analysis here, since South Carolina’s players already had their shoulder pads off and were finishing their conditioning by the time the media was allowed into Williams-Brice Stadium on Saturday.

But one stat jumped out from Steve Spurrier’s post-scrimmage debriefing:

Starting quarterback Stephen Garcia was sacked “about five times” in the 14-15 plays in which he dropped back to pass.

Yikes.

We don’t know whether Garcia played with the first-team offensive line the entire scrimmage, but it’s probably safe to assume he spent the bulk of his time with that unit. For the most part, it’s the same line Garcia played behind last season when he was sacked 37 times – an alarming number that tied LSU for most allowed in the SEC.

Now, to be fair, it should be pointed out that the Gamecocks’ offense was playing against a pretty good defense, one that has finished in the top 15 nationally in total defense each of the past two years.

But defensive chief Ellis Johnson didn’t sound all that impressed with his D on a hot day when the play on both sides of the ball was described as “sloppy” by both Johnson and Spurrier.

Garcia was 3-for-8 passing for 76 yards and a TD. His “rushing” numbers were six attempts for minus-23 yards. So if Spurrier’s math was right – the stats provided by the sports information department did not include sacks – that means Garcia ran for positive yardage just once.

When they weren’t on their backs, the quarterback trio combined to complete 22 of 33 passes for 325 yards and three TDs with no interceptions. But they were on their backs a lot.

Spurrier said backup QBs Connor Shaw and Andrew Clifford also were sacked “once or twice.”

After all the talk this week about the unproven depth on the offensive line, maybe the media was missing the more pressing question: Forget the backups, is the starting line going to be any better than the last couple of years?

That can’t be answered after just one scrimmage. The Gamecocks have two weeks to straighten things out before Southern Miss arrives.

But the abundance of what Spurrier calls “backward plays” in the first full scrimmage was not how the USC offense wanted to start.