Gameday Forecast for LSU
There is a storm brewing in the Bayou – and this tropical depression looks pretty nasty, too.
LSU has rained points and pain on all three of its opponents this season. Most expect the thunder to continue Saturday against South Carolina.
Unlike many of their big-school brethren, the Tigers have not ganged up on the directional schools from their state – Southwestern Louisiana, Northeastern Louisiana, et al, which now go by names such as Louisiana-Lafayette, USC’s opening-game opponent.
The Tigers rang up 347 yards and 45 points against Mississippi State, which has the SEC’s fourth-ranked defense.
They embarrassed No. 9 Virginia Tech 48-7, handing Hokies coach Frank Beamer his worst loss in 21 years in Blacksburg.
Last week the Bayou Bengals shut out Middle Tennessee 44-0 – a week after Rick Stockstill’s Blue Raiders hung 42 points on then-No. 8 Louisville.
For those not scoring at home, I’ll do the math: That’s a combined 137-7.
The Globetrotters never won that big.
To hear some folks talk this week, including Steve Spurrier at various times, you get the impression it’s not a matter of if LSU wins this weekend, but by how much.
The odds-makers have LSU as a 16-point favorite. CBS analyst Spencer Tillman picked the Tigers by “at least four touchdowns.”
Spurrier’s forecast was only a shade brighter than the dark-green swath, representing a low-pressure system, that could blow through Baton Rouge about the time CBS sideline reporter Tracy Wolfson conducts her pre-game interview with Mike the Tiger.
Spurrier said he was just being realistic and didn’t want his players “to go down there with false belief that we’ve got a great chance to win this game.”
And reality will bite if the Gamecocks don’t play substantially better than they did versus S.C. State.
Spurrier would like to follow the same blueprint the Gamecocks used at Georgia: Run the ball, chew some clock, kick a few field goals, play solid defense and try to steal an ugly win. Something like 16-12, Spurrier said, which just happened to be the final tally in Athens.
The problem is that LSU has enough confidence in its secondary that it will stack the box and play man coverage on the Gamecocks’ receivers, who – with the exception of Kenny McKinley – have not shown an ability to get open and/or make plays. If Blake Mitchell doesn’t hit a couple of downfield passes, the Tigers will continue to load up near the line and make it almost impossible for the Gamecocks to run the ball.
Did I mention opponents are averaging 1 yard per rush against the Tigers? To put that in perspective, walk into your kitchen and look at the space from the floor to your countertops. That’s what LSU is giving up per carry this season.
Against most opponents, teams could fumble the snap, have the quarterback fall on the ball and still average more than 1 yard a carry.
But this is not just any opponent. It’s a team that could be playing in the BCS national championship game, which conveniently enough, will be played in the Louisiana Superdome.
I think the Gamecocks’ defense plays well early and keeps things interesting before wearing down, the result of being on the field too long. If the rain and wind comes in off the Gulf, it could negate some of the Tigers’ speed and lead to a few turnovers that could hold the score down.
But it will take more than a tropical depression for the Gamecocks to pull the upset. It will take their best performance in three seasons under Spurrier.
It won’t be four touchdowns, but it won’t be all that close, either.
LSU 31, USC 13
USC football beat writer Joe Person has covered the Gamecocks since the start of the 2002 season. He's been on the college football beat since 1993. 
What the hey!
Gamecocks kick a field goal to win it with 3 seconds left!
C’mon Seth,
Cocks offense have just been playing the rope-a-dope. They are coming out firing on all cylinders this week. Let them stack the line. Mitchell throws for 280 yards and 3 td’s with another score rushing for Boyd. Vintage Spurrier offense this week. I need to write this blog…
My guess is that Joe P. felt this way when USC played Florida last year. Florida did play and win the National Championship, but could only
squeeze out a 1 point victory at home against the Gamecocks. I don’t expect him to pick USC to win, but I don’t see how insinuating that “The States” hometown team is second rate could be beneficial to the paper, the state, the city, the fans, or the team. He did give us a small chance to win at the very end and I appreciate the crum. Let’s see what happens on saturday.
GO COCKS!!!
Jnorman—you must have me confused with another State blogger. Though I suppose I should feel flattered to be compared with Seth, who is Master of his Domain and King of the Blogosphere.
I was abbreviating for the two headed JoeSeth monster. Go Cocks!
We’re going to win.
Hey Joe, the timing has been off the past few games but I saw wrinkles of a good offense. I think we play closer with a 7-10 point spread in LSU’s favor. There’s something not right with Spurriers comments, a little Holtz magic being tossed in there?
I’m affraid you may be right, Joe. Thanks for having the guts to say what you think.
I’d like our chances a lot better if it were later in the season when our offense has found its identity. But they are lost right now. Baton Rouge is no place to be under these circumstances.
USC will only get better and better as the season progresses. I believe that by year’s end, they will be an outstanding ball club with a chance to play LSU again. Only this time USC will be in a much better position to earn a program changing victory.
we are going to win 23-17 and if we do give the game away it will be close
Okay, I say let’s hope it’s another game like last year’s Florida game. I think the team has advanced past the getting hammered stage we have long been known for. Nothing but hope points to a victory, but the truth is only a deflected field goal attempt kept Forida in the title hunt last year. And they came into that game with every reason and intent to absolutely hammer us – and Spurrier – so we can stand on that reasoning going into this one. Seth takes the easy pick and smart money odds. I am going to say Jasper Brinkley has a big game as does at least one defensive secondary member. Our d-line holds their own and linebackers prove their mettle. Mitchell does his workman-like best and re-emerges as a solid if uninspiring SEC quarterback with a steady supply of short and middle range pass completions. One or two deep balls keep LSU honest. The Davis/Boyd boys do their usual solid running and as always seem to improve as the game progresses. They run like Tiger Woods plays golf: they get better deeper into the action. It will be an odd score, not high, 19 to 17 or something of that nature and we pull off a huge and stunning victory which helps us but hurts the SEC’s national title hopes for now. However, if we lose, better to lose to a western division foe and not eastern. We have to beat the eastern teams. We’ll see.
Whats up with the state paperwith GAMEGAY Underdog. Whereare the proof readers? Cocks 24-21
If we play our best game with very few mistakes, we have a chance. I can’t wait for the start of this one. Hopefully, the COCKs will pull off the day’s biggest upset. Go COCKs.
As some of us here in Charlotte say
Any Given Saturday
Go Cocks
Gamecock fans get your game face on
2hrs 20 min
LSU gets upset. 24-21 dont know if it will be blake or smelly but one of them steps up and plays with some leadership. and i still think spurrier’s got some tricks up his sleav. i’d love to see chris culiver in the game.
The agony of defeat…….
I still thought we hung with them pretty tough. GOOOO COCKS!!!!!!
hmmmmmm