Gameday forecast for LSU
Before the season started, college football fans looked at LSU’s three-week October stretch against SEC East teams (at Florida, at USC, home vs. Georgia) and predicted that the Tigers’ trip to Columbia could be one of those dreaded “trap” games.
After dispatching the Gators, the thinking went, LSU would have to avoid looking past the Gamecocks before facing Georgia.
So much for that.
After getting spanked by 30 in the Swamp last weekend, the Tigers won’t be overlooking anyone. But that does not guarantee LSU a win at Williams-Brice.
You’ve read or heard by now that LSU has never lost back-to-back, regular-season games under Les Miles, aka “The Hat.”
But here’s the stat that I can’t get my head around: Through five games, the Tigers have forced just four turnovers – four! That’s fewer than every Division I-A team except Rutgers and Washington, which also have four takeaways.
LSU’s defense had 36 turnovers last year during its national championship season. But there are a bunch of ball-hawks from that team who have left Baton Rouge, namely Glenn Dorsey, Ali Highsmith and Craig Steltz.
I keep hearing how the Tigers are going to come after Gamecocks quarterback Stephen Garcia, making his first start. But until last week at Florida, LSU had not shown much of a pass rush.
Turnovers are big every game, obviously. But given the above numbers and the fact that USC has turned the ball over more than any team in the SEC, they are especially big this week.
If USC’s does a good job protecting Garcia and the right-hander does not force throws into coverage, the Gamecocks – who lead the SEC in first downs – should move the ball on LSU’s defense.
So the question becomes whether Ellis Johnson’s defense can’t stop LSU’s offense, led by redshirt freshman quarterback Jarrett Lee. And the answer is yes … and no.
The Gamecocks should be able to clamp down on Lee and the Tigers’ passing game. But Charles Scott, the Tigers’ bruising, 233-pound tailback, could pose big problems.
Johnson told Steve Spurrier this week that LSU’s offensive line looked like an NFL line. The Tigers could play with just the left side of their line – 6-5, 325-pound tackle Ciron Black and 6-7, 375-pound guard Herman Johnson – and hold their own with a couple of Pac-10 defenses.
I’m expecting a close, well-played game with Garcia building on last week’s performance and the Gamecocks taking better care of the ball.
But I think the difference will be the running attacks. LSU is 24-0 under Miles when rushing for 100 yards and holding its opponent under 100 yards on the ground.
Make it 25.
LSU 27, USC 24
30 Comments to “Gameday forecast for LSU”
Leave a Reply
USC football beat writer Joe Person has covered the Gamecocks since the start of the 2002 season. He's been on the college football beat since 1993. 
Joe why don’t you go write for LSU or any other SEC for that matter? Gamecock fans are tied of your negativaty ,all you ever do is make up reasons for why you think South Carolina will lose, I know LSU is a great team and Les Miles is a great coach but every one has to reload sometimes ,LSU is a young team this year and it showed against Florida, they made mistakes that cost them the game, well guess what South carolina leads the conference in turn overs thanks to Smelley and they are still 5-2 and there only losses are to top 25 teams by a touch down each just imagine what could have been ,take away a few of those turn overs and South Carolina is in the top 10 this season and undefeated wow, maybe garcia can protect the ball and see the open receavers that have been there every game,then maybe you can find something posative to write about for a change! Go Cocks My prediction S.C.21- L.S.U.17
NOT! EVERY BODY HAS PICKED THIS AS AN UPSET… WHAT’S U]P WITH YOU. COCKS STOP THE TURN OVERS AND WIN 24-20….NEW RANKING
23 IN THE NATION! GO COCKS!
Clemson beat reporters are part to blame for the problems with the tiger football program by blowing way too much orange smoke to cover blemishes. You sir, have no problem with objectivity. BUT..it is time to drink the garnet kool-aide..Cocks-31..LSU-20.
Can ya smell what the cocks are cookin ? 24-17 GAMECOOKS WIN !!!!
What????? I thought you were a Gamecock Fan?
LSU will have 5 sacks, 3 picks and 138 yds and 3 touchdowns from C. Scott. LSU begins USC’s 5 game losing streak, 35-17
Great analysis but doesn’t home field advantage count for something? A loud WB stadium and a few lucky bounces should give the gamecocks a real shot.
Garcia will have 300 + yards pasing and 50 plus rushing the rest of the will have 150 + rush yards thats 400 plus, no turn overs aka fumbles or int. USC 37 LSU 31
We have an infiltrator!!! Scoop how did you find this web site? Anyway, it’s time the Gamecocks start turning the tide and it will start with you..LSU I’m not concerned anymore with you or Fla/Tenn /Aub/Ala we can hang with anybody and if we get a few bounces our way we will take the win the same as you. The gap has narrowed, now it’s just down to who gets the breaks. Gamecocks will win by 4…wait, who cares by how much we win by…we will just win ..thats all that counts anyway, right.
When LSU’s felines enter Columbia they are in for a shock. The Head Ball Coach has his chickens ready and it ain’t jumbalya that’ll gonna be enjoyed by ESPN’s national audience. Spurrier’s got his roosters crowing, it’ll be ‘cock and fire’ the banty’s play with plenty of desire and send the creole kitties back home lickin’ their paws.
LEONARD’S LOSER: LSU
SOUTH CAROLINA 31 LSU 10
LSU 40+
USC 14 or so
Carolina regardless of how lack luster the offense has looked all year is second in offensive yardage in the SEC behind Georgia. Defense is 3rd in the entire country, number one in the SEC. Carolina actually doesn’t shoot themselves in the foot and win this one convincingly 30 to 17.
Nice, objective article. Well thought out. But…
As an Alumni, I always hope USC wins, and can always figure out a scenario where we do win. This game looks to be very, very close. Whether or not one team or the other gains 100 +yds. will not be a deciding factor. What will decide the outcome, though, will be turnovers and/or 2 to 3 ‘outstanding’ individual plays, most likely in the 4th quarter. As to who will win…bettors, see Vegas…the rest of us…Go Cocks!!!
For the third week in a row this will be another nail biter. My head says LSU 26-21 but my heart says Gamecocks 27-21. If Succop can rebound from a bad kicking performance and USC limit turnovers to 2 or less we have a real shot. Im going with my heart. USC 27 LSU 21.
These guys need to give a little more energy in the presentation. Who needs ambien when you have these guys to watch. I guess thats why they’re writers,,,,zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
I’m with Danny and tl.weston; all objectivity aside, i think that South Carolina has silently become one of the better teams in the SEC, and the stats support that. The stats also show that we have a hard time putting up offensive points, but over the past few weeks, we have found PLAYMAKERS in a revitalized McKinley and Brown, the newcomer Jason Barnes, A QUARTERBACK WITH A BACKBONE (!), and the best stock of TightEnds in the NCAA. Our scoring woes should be coming to a close.
If our defense is who we think they are, then winning this game shouldnt just be viable, but expected. I still dont feel that our offense is confident enough to blow a team out, and a lack of running game hurts, so this should still be close.
Gamecocks: 24
LSU: 20
21 – 17 — Gamecocks baby!! My heart always says Gamecocks.
It should be a close game.
LSU’s luck is over this season! They are not a top team and the final score will be:
USC 31
LSU 20
Go Cocks!
LSU 14
S. Carolina 31
Don’t Call it an Upset
Long story short – The tiger defensive line will probably dominate our offensive line. The good news is that Garcia will make yardage on busted plays. this game will likley be decided by a turnover.
btw – garcia’s running style is interesting. we naturally think of ‘scrambling QBs’, but garcia really sort of runs more like a half back, he seems decisive but also patient, like he’s looking for his hole, most dropback QBs aren’t that fluid. so this guy might actually be good as advertised. holtz had a great line – if a dog will bite it will do it as a pup. tonight should be very interesting
Why are all the reporters from the state anti-Gamecock?
What is the point of a guy who makes his living covering the Gamecock football program picking against them when most everyone else thinks they will win? Do you have a bet on the game?, or a vandetta against the people who pay your bills? If i were Spurrier, i would refuse to talk to ALL of you scumbags from the state.
I hope everyone is right about the Cocks winning this game. I do not see it. Beating a pi$$ed off LSU that just had 51 points laid on them last week by Florida will be next to impossible. LSU still has probably the best talent in the SEC. Yes, the quarterback position is a question mark for them (and for us too). We still have a weak offensive line and no running game. It will not be a close game.
Who pulled your chain, Bubba? Is that you, Joe?
I beleave Garcia will play well and if S.C. can avoid turn overs and execute the game plan we will win 24-17, Gamecooks win top 25 ranking at 6-2 and 3-2 Sec conference.this is a huge must win Game for South Carolina to break thru this season!!!
JOE Person,
I just finished watching the LSU game and your prediction was absolutely spot-on. I’m impressed and also very happy about our defense and Garcia’s first start. Keep your chins up, you are starting to congeal. I expect an 8 win season and a good bowl game this year.
The sky’s the limit next year and beyond.
Hey Joe – why dont you NOT focus on the positives of OUR team in your articles and try looking at the glass half full??? Ever think that maybe because the Tigers got drowned in the swamp last week that the Gameocks would be up on their game thinking positively about a possible unstable LSU?? Yes, the Cocks lost, but they also played to the level of a championship team. Get of your high horse and take a look at what really matters and what REALLY wins football games . . . heart and desire . . . not numbers and stats!
I always knew, that the author is very competent of this question! Thanks the Author! Has received weight of pleasure after perusal of clause. I would like to talk to you more in detail, on this question, but I have not found yours Icq or skype … :-[
Hello, excuse, I can bad speak on English… I have found yours blog through search google, I was interested with your texts, I could translate them on Russian, for the publication in the small edition of our company? I would be grateful to you. Thanks.
Nice blog! Thank you
Самый интересный веб сайт о новинках портативных устройствах, а также тесты мобильных приспособлений