FSU forecast: A ray of light in a night game

Among the things I learned this week:

• While the defensive backs and ends certainly haven’t appeared up to their standard, this is statistically the worst Florida State defense we’ve seen in the Bobby Bowden era.
• Apparently the easiest way for your kids to get chicken pox is to have the vaccination shot that supposedly is to prevent your kids getting the chicken pox.
• The future of pro basketball is in peril when a first-round pick in the NBA’s developmental league was used Thursday night on former Clemson center Raymond Sykes (enjoy Sioux Falls, South Dakota, Mr. Sykes!)
• Junior safety DeAndre McDaniel is not up for recognition as the nation’s top defensive back … because he wasn’t on the preseason watch list. Furthermore, it’s a wonder McDaniel even made it to prep school considering some of the influences he could have fallen pray to, which I tried to paint the big picture with here without crossing the line into airing one family’s dirty laundry.
• One bit that didn’t make the McDaniel story – his grandmother, who lives in rural Havana, Fla., and isn’t exactly awash with cash, had to get a loan from her employer in order to pay for McDaniel to go to Hargrave (Va.) Military Academy. It appears the sacrifice of “Miss Dot,” as she’s known, to keep her grandson off the streets is on track to pay off.
• Desperate times call for desperate measures. And FSU announcing defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews’ forthcoming retirement certainly appears a desperate attempt at summoning a rallying cry. Don’t get me wrong, Andrews deserves a fitting send-off. But the timing of the announcement is curious, at least in my opinion.
• Really, really regret missing the ESPN documentary that aired this week about Len Bias’ death. Dabo Swinney recalled earlier this week coming out of a specific class and hearing that Bear Bryant had died. Having grown up in ACC hoops land, Bias’  death is one of two sports events where I remember where I was when the news broke(former Charlotte Hornets/current New Orleans broadcaster Gerry Vaillancourt broke the news to a bunch of us 10-year-old basketball campers at my future high school). The other event — the news Magic Johnson had HIV.  
• Validation, perhaps, for my belief that ACC football is as entertaining as it’s been for awhile: According to ACC blogger Heather Dinich, the league’s 11.61 margin of victory in conference games this year is the smallest conference margin of victory in the nation. In all, 16 of the ACC ’s 28 league games have been decided by seven or fewer points.

Which leads me to Saturday’s game …

Is there any reason to believe this one will end any differently?

FSU is throwing the ball on anyone and everyone right now, especially in the second half when OC Jimbo Fisher quits being cute and the ‘Noles feel the sense of urgency to keep up with their sieve of a defense (look no further than what FSU did to Clemson in last year’s second half).

On the flip side, the Tigers have shown a pretty good handle for what Andrews is gonna do the last few years, during which Clemson has won four of the last six in the series.

I think FSU has its sharpest performance in terms of correcting its recurring bout with blown defensive assignments. But its lack of comparable talent at various positions ultimately will allow Clemson to top 30 anyhow.

The Tigers still have not scored a touchdown the last 12 fourth quarters, and against this Florida school they aren’t granted a reprieve in overtime.

All dubious things must come to an end, too.

For so long, Clemson has choked when it starts thinking about its golden opportunity to vie for the ACC title.

Could still happen. Just won’t this game.

PREDICTION: CLEMSON 33, FSU 27

Let the Sunshine in

The Florida flavor on Clemson’s roster is unmistakable.

In fact, as someone who writes about the Tigers for a living, it’s been nearly impossible to avoid.

Whether in prep for the Miami game two weeks ago or this week’s contest vs. Florida State, it seems like every other relevant player we’ve interviewed has – in addition – carried a Florida tie worth inquiring about.

C.J. Spiller, Jacoby Ford, Kyle Parker, DeAndre McDaniel, Chris Chancellor, Rashard Hall, Jamie Harper, Kevin Alexander … in total, six starters and 16 players hail from the Sunshine State.

Which makes Clemson’s recruiting under Dabo Swinney all the more fascinating.

Of this year’s 18 commitments, none are from Florida. None of last year’s 12 signees were, either (although six of whom committed before Tommy Bowden’s departure).

I don’t think it has anything to do with recruits there staying in state. Nor do I believe it a fundamental shift in de-emphasizing the state of Florida – the Tigers still have five assistants recruiting there, and Jacksonville was Swinney’s proving grounds.

Maybe it’s just as simple as Clemson losing some its luster in failing to meet expectations the last couple of years. And I wonder how much has to do with the Tigers’ shuffling their staff, losing Vic Koenning (St. Augustine) and David Blackwell (Miami) from rooted territories.

But moreover, it spawns the bigger-picture question: How much will the Tigers suffer by losing Swinney as a lead recruiter?

Spiller, Parker, McDaniel, Harper – Swinney had a pretty doggone good track record for going in and plucking the hard-to-snag blue-chippers out of Florida.

Tommy Bowden was such a good closer that one wonders whether having one less marquee recruiter on staff will ultimately reduce some of Clemson’s available talent.

Of course, the thought might simply be premature to begin with. The Tigers hold 2011 commitments from touted RB Marlin Lane and teammate Cortez Davis of Daytona Beach, pledges (however unguaranteed) secured by assistant Chris Rumph.

And the premise ignores the strides Clemson has made in rebuilding Georgia as its recruiting foundation by sticking Billy Napier (and to a lesser extent, Charlie Harbison) there, even at the expense stunting its momentum in North Carolina.

Still … gotta think sweeping Miami and FSU probably wouldn’t hurt Clemson’s profile in Florida, either.

Parker’s shoulders as strong as his right arm

We’ll have a story on Saturday about the work-in-progress that is redshirt freshman QB Kyle Parker, but found one of his comments today rather interesting.

A lot has been made since the bye week (post Maryland debacle) about Parker “taking ownership” of the product by putting extra time in with film study after practices as well as taking diligent notes during position meetings. OC Billy Napier has talked about Parker growing up, seeing as he wasn’t afforded the luxury of even seeing how this game-week preparation process went last year because he was a scout-teamer. 

In that respect, the staff reworked some of Napier’s organizational duties so he could spend more time devoted to Parker and the QBs.

There were so many interwoven reasons why Clemson started off 2-3 with all three losses coming because of late-game shortcomings. 

And while Parker wasn’t the all-encompassing problem — far from it — it’s clear Napier believed he was the solution.

Said Parker:  

The biggest thing both of us realized is the games we were losing, it was because I was in position to make the plays to win the game. Whenever you have a freshman quarterback coming into the season, you don’t want him to have to make all the plays to win the game, but that was what was happening.

So a lot of people realized we were going to have to start stepping up and making some throws, or we weren’t going to win.

Ever since then, we’ve been putting the work in and realizing pretty much how I play, that’s what our results will be.

That’s a lot for any college kid to shoulder, much less embrace. But judging by his ability to rebound from mistakes at Miami, you can see the coaches are impressed with his moxie and leadership potential.

On to Napier’s interview with reporters:

 Q: This looks like a defense that will give you the opportunity to do something.

A: Well, obviously they’ve had some injuries. They’ve played some younger players. But at the same time, they’re still Florida State. They’re still very capable of playing good defense.

A lot of the guys we’ve recruited in the past are playing for them. In particular, the injuries to Budd Thacker and Dekoda Watson were a setback for them from a leadership standpoint. But I think those guys will be back this week. They’ll be ready to go.

When they’ve needed stops, they’ve made stops to win here of late.

Statistically they have given up some yards and some points, so I think all that is good to look at on paper. But Saturday night, there will be a good football team on the other sideline, and our guys will have to be prepared to play.

Q: When you looked back at last year’s game during the offseason, how much did you say, man, if Chris Hairston would have just stayed healthy?

A: We started fast and had some trouble protecting after that. We had four sacks after that, so that impacted the down and distance, and they were able to get some key stops on third down.

You know, but that was then, this is now. Really it’s all irrelevant.

Q: You’ve talked lately about Kyle Parker working to be more accountable. Is there a play that sticks out where he made a throw or read lately that he wouldn’t have made earlier this year?

A: There was an example in the Coastal game where we had an illegal motion take place. He was knowledgeable enough to get those guys back set. He pointed at the back to go in motion and Jacoby – we have a similar play where Jacoby motions – and the two guys motioned at the same time. And he had enough poise to tell Jacoby to stop and tell the back to get set so we didn’t have illegal motion.

That was good. That’s one of those things you cover maybe once or twice. He remembered and had enough football knowledge and IQ to realize what he could do to fix that problem. So that was good to see.

Q: By your measure, how did you do against Coastal?

A: We were more productive. Obviously we played Coastal Carolina.

I think the thing we did against Miami that allowed us to be successful was we did a good job on second-and-long of getting back to third-and-manageable and making some plays.

I think our kids understand the value of a good physical run that keeps you second-and-6 – as we talk about in inside drill, a Nasty 4, if that makes sense.

As Kyle grows up, we talk to him about managing down and distance. Knowing when to throw it away, knowing when not to take a sack, knowing when to check the ball down, knowing when to take a shot, those kinds of things.

There’s no question we’ve been able to keep people off balance. I think a lot of that has to do with the quarterback play.

As he’s grown up, we’ve been able to give him more decisions to be made on down-and-distance and not been as vanilla.

As he’s come along, we’ve come along. Always felt like that was how it was going to go. So hopefully he will continue to progress this week, and a lot of it has had to do with him learning how to prepare. He’s got a pretty good feel for that, and the message to players is your preparation is going to determine how you play Saturday.

Everybody’s going to be excited to play the game Saturday. That’s not the problem. Where we can make a difference is in our meetings, on the field, and in our corrections and installation. Then polishing up the small details as we get closer to the game.

Q: How much did the Coastal game help the young receivers?

A: It’s good for their confidence. Obviously they were really good players coming in here. For some of them, maybe it was their first play at the college level that was a reminder, hey, you were a pretty good player when you came here.

That’s obviously the value of being experienced. And players that have played a couple of years, when they make their significant improvement, between their first and second years of experience. That, more than anything, reminds them, “Hey, I’m a talented guy. I can do this.” And they can go from there.

Q: Do you sense Mickey Andrews has tried several new things this year, trying to find something that works, even playing some zone?

A: They’ve always played some zone coverage to complement their man.

More than anything, it’s been trying to do things to create some pressure. Obviously the injuries have caused some problems for them and they’re a little bit younger than they’ve been. So that being said, he’s a good football coach and he’s in that battle we’re all in, trying to be successful and give kids a chance to compete and create an advantage.

These are all things he’s probably done over the years. He’s just pulling from his bag of tricks, I guess you could say, to give his kids a chance to make some stops on Saturdays.

Q: Chris Hairston said he wasn’t real happy with how you guys weren’t able to impose your will on them up front early. What was your take?

A: Just some fire-zones that gave us some trouble. Think we had some guys that probably didn’t get fitted up as well as they could on the second level. I think he’s right on there. We can improve.

I think those guys did a good job of making some adjustments and getting clued it. But for the most part, it’s just guys doing their job. Bottom line, it comes down to preparation. You’re going to play how you prepare.

Q: After eight games, as a first-year coordinator, how much more comfortable are you now as a play-caller.

A: Oh, yeah. There’s no question, in particular, our first year as a staff, just getting things grooved in and getting a routine. Managing the time as a group, getting the most out of your practice opportunities, each week trying to put fires out – that’s part of the transition.

Q: Can you get “in the zone” as a play-caller where things are just going well?

A: I think a lot has to do with your plan throughout the week. If you have a really good handle on them – and everything is pretty calculated – that’s when you get into where you feel like you’re in that chess match, to some degree.

When you’re a little less prepared or less certain, that’s when it’s not like that. But that’s one of those deals where you’re not thinking about much else. You’re in the game, going to the next play, it’s all about that down. Managing the game, down and distance, making sure the right guys are touching the ball.

A lot of it comes back to the work you do during the week, no doubt. It’s a compilation of all the guys (coaches) coming together and trying to put together a good plan. It’s a combination of studying their defense and using what personnel you have to move the ball. That’s the joy of coaching, and it’s fun, there ain’t no doubt about that. But it’s not fun when you’re not prepared. We’ve done that.

That’s the message. We want to be in those locker rooms like at Miami, not Maryland. To do that, to make it fun, then hey, get your butt ready to play. And then let’s go cut it loose.

The Steele factory

If you think running through Clemson’s defensive front on a short-yardage play is tough, try cracking coordinator Kevin Steele for any details on his scheme or what individual players do well. It’s seemingly instinct for Steele to defiantly counter any theory reporters have presented to him since the season started.

That said, there’s clearly a method to his madness, and the insight he does elect to share is generally a good read. Steele met with the media on Monday instead of Tuesday because Clemson wanted to spread his availability out over two days in order to accomodate the flood of requests from FSU media on Tuesday.

If you can’t tell, he’s never been a big fan of my questions about opposing QB’s abilities to run with decent success since the TCU game. But I should also stress his mood remains pleasant through these interview sessions, and he even (finally) took my bait for a FSU anecdote later on.

Q: Are they pretty diverse, with all the stuff they do?

A: They’re very multiple in their personnel groupings, very multiple in their formation groupings. And they have the vertical passing game, the intermediate passing game, throw a lot of screens. Lots of screens. And they create the two-back running game with the quarterback. So they’re about as diverse as you can get.

Q: When Jimbo Fisher puts on the film, what is he going to see and recognize from Mickey Andrews’ influence?

A: I don’t know. You’d have to ask Jimbo that one. We’ll see.

Q: Does your experience there help you in preparations in any way?

A: If I was going to play, it might make a difference. But fortunately I’m not going to be out there. I don’t think it’s going to have any bearing on it at all. There’s so much change. I think there are only three guys there who were there when I was. And they’re on the same side of the ball I’m on, so it’s not going to be head-to-head.

(Note, yes, that picture is Steele talking at an FSU practice with Kevin Greene — years after their famed heated exchange on the Carolina Panthers’ sidelines).

Q: How do they stack up to Miami?

A: I don’t really get into that. Every team’s different, every week’s different. I thought Miami was a very good football team. I thought they were very well coached and they had a quarterback who was a very good player as well as receivers.

Florida State’s the same way. They have a quarterback that’s very good. This is the (fourth) quarterback in the top 20-rated that we’ve faced this year. We’ve been down this road before. We’ve got to go down it some more.

Q: What did you take most from your short time at FSU?

A: It wasn’t that short. Four years is a long time.

The way (Mickey) Andrews goes about, he’s the same every day. He’s got unbelievable tenacity. Coaches them hard, coaches them tough. And really a great game-day caller, one of the best I’ve been around. He just has a knack for it.
In terms of the practice habits, not necessarily the Xs and Os, the toughness, the tenacity, the fight, that was unique. Because they practice very physical.

Q: Does Ponder remind you of anyone you’ve faced?

A: No, he’s a little bit different. He throws the ball like an NFL quarterback and runs it like a college option quarterback of the ‘70s or 80s, which is a rare thing now. Very bright young man. I know him quite well.

Q: Are teams just looking at the TCU film and seeing something that invites them to run the quarterback?

A: I don’t know. TCU scored 13 points, one touchdown, and they scored on a pass. They made some key first downs, but that was not the game. It seems to be the question, but I guess that’s a good thing. If that’s all we can draw out of eight games, then draw it.

Q: Getting back to Ponder, how well do you know him?

A: Well, I recruited him, No. 1. So I was in his home with his parents and know what kind of young man he is. He’s a very bright person. Has a lot of tenacity. Very calm and has natural leadership qualities.

Guess he’s working on his master’s, maybe his second one, and he’s a junior. I don’t know about you guys, but I wasn’t working on a master’s when I was a junior.

Q: It appears as if you’re leaning toward starting Malliciah (Goodman) in Da’Quan Bowers’ place?

A: We’re so diverse that sometimes I don’t even know who’s out there. We roll those guys up front and feel we have a pretty good group of guys. With Kevin (Alexander), Malliciah, (Andre) Branch, Ricky (Sapp), that’s a pretty good group.

Q: Any update on Bowers?

A: Nope. Don’t think he’s going to practice today. Hopefully tomorrow (Steele smiles). You never know.

Q: What’s the toughest thing to replacing Bowers?

A: His body, No. 1. He’s a big body. And he’s obviously got a lot of talent. He’s a fast, hard-nosed guy who’s gotten better each week.

But like I said, if you watch the first quarter of every single game, those other guys are out there just as much. So it’s not like we’re putting a guy out there who hasn’t taken a snap. If we have to do that at all.

Q: Is it hard to get to Ponder with their quick passing game?

A: You’re not going to sack the quarterback when you throw 37 screens in four games. It’s a rare occasion you see a quarterback sacked on a screen. That’s a toss sweep, not a pass. So you approach that totally different.

When they go with a traditional drop-back passing game, we have to go with what we do. That’s four-man rush, keep him in the pocket, push the pocket in his lap and dial up the pressures when they need to be dialed up.

Q: Who are the skill guys that most concern you otherwise?

A: Their running back is a good player and can hit the home run. Then they put 24 in at fullback, and he’s a tailback. They can motion him out and get the ball to him.

Then the receivers, you’ve got to know where 80 is. He’s a big presence who makes big catches for them. But then 83 and 8 are the guys who are getting the reverses and screens and those kinds of things.

The last couple games with them, it’s been tackling in space. So they’re going to get the ball in space, not necessarily down the field – although they can get it down the field and do throw it down the field effectively.

A lot of their stuff is get the ball on the edge quick with a bubble screen or reverses or option with an orbit coming over the top. And you have to tackle him.

Q: Knowing Mickey the way you do, do you feel for him this year, giving up all the points they have?

A: Well, I don’t know I’d put it like that.

When you know somebody like I know coach Andrews – he’s a great football coach. He was in 1984, he was in 1994, and he is now. Things sometimes, the ebb and flow of what we do, can be a little different. But he’s a very good Xs and Os coach, a good teacher, and he makes guys play the way it’s supposed to be played.

So in that regard, he’ll get it fixed.

Q: Other than the Miami game, you haven’t been troubled by big plays.

A: No, we’ve been pretty effective. I was quoted some stats that we are in the top 4-5 teams in the country in allowed first downs. We’re right at the 70-percent mark in getting off the field in the third down, which that’s that bench mark.

We’ve done a good job of affecting the quarterback with the rush. Then our coverage – I can’t remember the last time where you played a season and one team had 80-something yards passing, another team had 25 yards, another 27. Somebody out there is rushing the passer pretty good and somebody’s matching those routes pretty good.

There are some things we have to keep getting better at. You mention the quarterback at TCU – the first time we saw that play was that day. And it was very different. They ran it four times that day and did a good job on it. We run it every week now, whether we see it or not. And ironically, the first play of the game this week was the same play, and I think it went for 2 yards.

Sometimes in this game you’re going to see things you haven’t seen before. And this game is a rep game sometimes. It’s formations and pullers and motions and shifts and all that, they’re not going to go out there and do it perfect all the time. If they did, we wouldn’t have a job.

Q: What do you think of their receivers?

A: Fast, very fast. They’re all over the place.

Q: When you went to FSU, did you have a connection?

A: Coach Andrews, and I knew the whole staff, really. It was one of those things where I’d actually been down for clinic, to talk about some things, they’d invited me down and talk about some things we were doing with the Panthers – I’d actually stayed one of those times two or three days.

Then when I got fired at Baylor, I was sitting around doing nothing and really wasn’t worried about doing nothing – I was running after breakfast, lunch and sometimes dinner, and it was a new way of life.

One day the cell phone rang and it said “FSU marketing.” And I picked the phone up and they asked me what I was doing. It was coach Bowden and coach Andrews, and they were riding in the car together. And I said not a whole lot. To make a long story short, I was told to get on a plane and come down and see coach Bowden and bring enough clothes to go recruiting. So I hung the phone up and my wife asked me what that was all about. I said, ‘I don’t know, but I think I just took a job at Florida State.’”

Q: How far back does your relationship with Andrews go?

A: Well, my uncle played with him at the University of Alabama. And then when he was coach at Livingston State, now West Alabama, he coached several players that my dad coached.

He probably wouldn’t appreciate me telling this part of the story, but I can remember fifth, sixth grade, going to Livingston games and seeing coach Andrews after the game. I used to tell him that every now and again, and he’s tell me it didn’t happen, but it did. Of course, he was like 22 at the time.

Q: Who can light into a player any better at practice?

A: Nobody. It’s amazing because I love him to death. He’s an amazing human being.

Learned so much from him about handling players. And those players love him to death. I’ve never been at a place where everyone comes back so much, and the first person they want to see is coach Andrews.

I will say this about him, and I say it affectionately, but he has a split personality. There’s something about white lines that changes his personality. Off the field, he’s about as easygoing as he can be. But on the field, he demands and commands excellence at every snap. And he’s pretty good at getting it.

10 thingies

1. The most interesting thing I saw at the Coastal Carolina game – the pre-game montage of the Miami highlights on the scoreboard video screen.

One specific clip lasted but a meager few seconds, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the file was deleted thereafter. But it showed S DeAndre McDaniel in front of a green locker at Land Shark Stadium afterward, flashing Miami’s trademark “U” sign with his hands.

McDaniel grinned as he flipped it upside down.

Wonder if he’ll be practicing the Tomahawk chop for his hometown followers this week.

2. Yes, I did once question whether freshman Malliciah Goodman out to redshirt because of the available depth at the defensive end position. The jury needs to be aware that was before Swinney righted a previous wrong and elected to redshirt junior Kourtnei Brown, too.

The move could well pay off this week, seeing as Da’Quan Bowers appears out with a sprained MCL and PCL.

If the decision had gone the other way around, the strong-side end spot would probably be shared by Kevin Alexander and Andre Branch. Branch has quietly flashed some promise since as far back as the spring, but Goodman quickly developed into the top backup at Bowers’ strong-side position and has comparably held his own in running situations.

Witnessing Goodman laterally hawk down Coastal Carolina’s return man on one kickoff was all one needed to know about his athletic range.

3. Why do the Tigers even still list strong-side linebacker as a starting position on the depth chart?

Is there any doubt their nickel package, with Marcus Gilchrist as slot corner, is their base defense?

I’d be very interested to know what percentage of plays Gilchrist has spent at corner versus safety this season.

4. Just when you think the offensive line might be making some progress in terms of generating a little push in the running game, it appeared as if the front was largely stonewalled against Coastal Carolina’s line for much of the relevant action Saturday.

Now, C.J. Spiller went untouched on his 6-yard TD run, when LG Thomas Austin consumed a 210-pound linebacker and LT Chris Hairston guided his man about 15 yards wide.

But the middle and right side of the line still have a good bit of work to do before anyone will label this group “physical.”

They have, however, done a commendable job in pass protection of late.

5. This ties in to a compelling match-up with FSU.

The Noles’ defensive front, by comparison, appears to be the worst it has been in a long time. There’s no pass-rush from the ends, the interior folks haven’t wreaked typical havoc by splitting the seam upfield either, and pursuit from the front seven looks FCS-level slow.

Something has to give in this slowdown, er, I mean, showdown this week.

You know, Bowden Bowl had such a nice, clean, marketable ring to it in hindsight.

This year’s “Elder Bowden’s potentially last game against the school that his son preemptively jumped ship before being pushed off the plank” Bowl doesn’t quite carry the same panache.

6. C.J. Spiller may be meriting the Heisman buzz, but he’s got some stiff competition for just the ACC’s player of the year honors.

I’m not so sure FSU QB Christian Ponder doesn’t have as strong a case for that award right now, although the same thing could arguably be said for Georgia Tech QB Josh Nesbitt, too.

Ponder is averaging a robust 306.6 yards per game passing this season and has thrown 13 TDs to just 3 INTs.

In my opinion, it’s splitting hairs whether this is the most dynamic offense Clemson will face this year – Miami’s is the most diverse and hardest to schematically defend; TCU’s was the most physical and balanced, and Georgia Tech’s required the most attention to detail.

FSU’s, though, possesses the greatest threat in taking advantage of Clemson’s weakest spots. The Tigers have struggled to contain mobile quarterbacks, and Ponder has gained the fourth-most yards of ACC quarterbacks (304 yards) behind the designated rusher Nesbitt, N.C. State’s Russell Wilson (397) and VT’s Tyrod Taylor (311).

7. The ACC might not profile as being any better this year than in recent seasons because it again lacks an apparent national contender. An outsiders aren’t going to give the league any credibility when Duke is 3-1 in conference play, regardless of the job David Cutcliffe has done in making the Blue Devils a formidable foe on a weekly basis.

But I’ll be darned if ACC games haven’t proven vastly more entertaining this year.

And it comes down to the fact/opinion that there are actually/finally some legit offenses in this conference. Part of it has to do with an infusion of improved coaching, and part of it has to do with the ACC finally signing and developing talent at the quarterback position.

This QB crop includes more collective playmakers than this conference has seen in quite a few years, I’d surmise.

8. Disregard the previous statement if Boston College manages to win the Atlantic for a second year in a row without a legit quarterback. Zzzz ….

9. The longer the season goes, the more those late losses to No. 6 TCU and No. 10 Georgia Tech don’t look so shabby on the resume.

Still question just how many folks appreciate how good the Horned Frogs are. I would take them over No. 4 Cincinnati or No. 5 Boise State on a neutral field in a heartbeat. And they have at least four guys whom I believe are going to be decent NFL draft picks come April.

10. Other observations from the Coastal Carolina game and musings …

Appreciated the subtle move by special teams coach Andre’ Powell to, right before the opening kickoff, invert Spiller with the next two up-guys, expecting the Chants to boot a sky kick short. They kicked one even shorter, but Powell has done an impressive job with special teams scouting.

If RB Andre Ellington can rectify an apparent penchant for fumbling, he can open some regional eyes in 2010.

I want a redo on freshman weak-side linebacker Corico Hawkins’ listed height (5-10). Because we are going to be referring to his lack of it a lot next year when he’s deservedly starting alongside Brandon Maye.

Jaron Brown’s nifty TD off a screen pass, during which he made at least five defenders miss, is why he garnered so much preseason hype. The 6-2 Brown’s inability to get proper positioning and/or mis-time his jump on a deep ball from Parker, culminating in an interception, is why the staff appears content to stick with the steady-eddy types in contests where there isn’t such a margin for error.

To be a fly on the wall when Tommy Bowden is watching this one Saturday night ….

Coasting, er, Coastal forecast

OK, no need to mince words here. Let’s cut to the chase.

Clemson lambasts Coastal Carolina.

These aren’t your slightly older brother’s Chanticleers that had four future NFL players as well as future South Carolina sportswriter of the year Josh Hoke as kicker.

Beyond seeing whether C.J. Spiller can sustain his Heisman buzz in presumed limited playing time, I’m anxious to see how a number of the backups fare: QB Willy Korn, WR Jaron Brown, LBs Corico Hawkins and Jonathan Willard and S Jonathan Meeks and Spencer Adams, among others.

The real intrigue is how the Atlantic Division race unfolds around Clemson.

The Tigers (3-2) win out, they go to the ACC title game. Boston College (3-2) and Wake Forest (2-2) could both match its final record if they win out, too, but Clemson holds the individual tiebreaker over each, plus would win the three-way tiebreak because it is 2-0 against the trio.

The greater question, then, is how much leeway the Tigers have to incur another loss. And that probably depends on whom Clemson loses to.

Boston College appears to me to be the biggest threat to win the division because it has a really weak remaining schedule.

The Eagles are out of conference Saturday, too, hosting 7-1 Central Michigan.

The bad news for Clemson fans is that the rest of Boston College’s league games are against three awful offenses – Virginia, North Carolina and Maryland.

The good news would be that the Eagles are 0-3 on the road this year, and two of those games (Virginia, Maryland) are away from home.

Wake Forest – well, Jim Grobe has proven anything is possible. But I don’t see that defense holding up against the likes of Miami today as well as Georgia Tech, FSU and Duke. The Deacs will do well to reach bowl eligibility.

All you need to know about this division is that the game of the day belongs to N.C. State (0-3) at FSU (1-3).

Clemson hosts FSU next week and travels to N.C. State the following week.

And if I’m the Tigers, I don’t want the ‘Noles, a k a Jon & Kate Plus 85, coming in with sustained confidence after last week’s 30-27 comeback win at UNC. FSU’s offense is every bit as dangerous as Miami’s when it puts its mind to it.

Either way, it will be interesting to monitor the pulse of Clemson’s next two opponents following this outcome.

As for the Tigers, well, I just hope this one wraps up neatly in time for me to snag some Reese’s products with the ninos.

Coastal Carolina can see my son’s outfit coming down the tracks. 

PREDICTION: CLEMSON 55, COASTAL CAROLINA 7

B(u)y the Coastal numbers

The theory goes that any publicity is good publicity, I believe.

So, why SHOULDN’T Coastal Carolina kick-off and punt to C.J. Spiller?

The most TV exposure the Chanticleers have received this year was their appearance on the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network, which is even harder to find than ESPNU. And that appearance didn’t exactly go so hot, as it was Coastal’s beatdown against Liberty.

Sure, their best marketing move would be to trump Clemson in Death Valley. But the odds are almost as great that you or I put on a Heisman-caliber performance this weekend.

I’m not so sure the most opportunistic strategy for Coastal Carolina this weekend wouldn’t be to funnel the ball to Spiller as frequently as possible before the contest gets out of hand. That way you significantly increase your chances for air time on ESPN’s highlights package.

Don’t tell me the reason any FCS team plays this game isn’t for 1) the money, and 2) the exposure.

38.3 – Spiller’s kickoff return average, third in the nation behind Virginia Tech’s Dyrell Roberts (40.8) and Texas’ D.J. Monroe (39.3)

17.1 – Coastal Carolina’s average kickoff return allowed, 12th-best in the FCS ranks

2 – Number of kickoffs, maximum, I’m betting Spiller is on the field for.

1 – kickoff return TD Spiller needs to set the NCAA career record

****

Forgot to mention this earlier, but I was really scratching my head Saturday at why Clemson dared run the deception play where RB Andre Ellington hid near the sideline before eventually being overthrown while running uncovered – considering the brouhaha that erupted when both the Tigers and Georgia Tech used deception plays in their meeting, which the ACC later said should have drawn penalties.

ACC director of football officials Doug Rhoads was even in attendance at Miami.

From what I’ve gathered, this play was different from the one Clemson used vs. GT and USC a year ago because no one was substituted or perhaps pretended to be substituted.

Ellington, if I recall correctly, started to line up in the right slot, then ran back across the field toward the sideline. He stopped short, though, as if listening to a coach. Ball was snapped, and he scooted down the sideline.
Clemson hadn’t been told it was illegal this week, so I reckon it’s fair game.

The Tigers won’t need deception this week.

101 – FCS ranking of Coastal Carolina’s scoring offense (16.0 points), out of 118 teams

11 – closest margin of victory Clemson has had in a game against an FCS opponent, en route to a perfect 22-0 record against lower-division programs.

****

Methinks I’m the only person who doesn’t seem to think S DeAndre McDaniel would make a decent receiver.

The thought of him playing receiver was playfully bandied about by fans and media types alike early in the season when Clemson’s WRs took passes off the chest like soccer forwards.

And now McDaniel has the chance to play receiver if he wants it – albeit supposedly for just one snap.

Dabo Swinney said he promised Clemson’s defenders that anyone who returned an interception or fumble for a touchdown would be granted a play on offense if they wanted one. And McDaniel had the 23-yard interception return in the fourth quarter at Miami.

McDaniel may have better ball skills than most of Clemson’s wideouts and the rangy athleticism and body type to match.

But he plays largely off instinct, and I’d question whether he could maintain the discipline needed for running precise routes at specific depths. Especially when the Tigers cannot appear to get him to consistently tackle with fundamentals instead of taking a kill shot.

Which is no disrespect to his game. As I speculated on Wednesday’s chat, he’s aligning himself for All-America consideration at a position already featuring two heavyweights, Tennessee’s Eric Barry and SoCal’s Taylor Mays.

5 – INTs that Coastal Carolina QB Jamie Childers, the projected starter in light of Zach MacDowell’s ankle injury, has throw in just 40 attempts this season

6 – MacDowell’s INTs, in 74 attempts

No shoes, no problem

Usually I prefer to roll out the transcriptions from Tuesday interviews with both of Clemson’s coordinators.

But while talking at length with DE Da’Quan Bowers and TE Michael Palmer, I pulled a backup Clemson LT and completely whiffed on defensive coordinator Kevin Steele. Didn’t even see him speed-rush by.

So I’m audibling to a few anecdotes and thoughts that are hopefully coherent, as I’m all atwitter during opening night of the NBA season.

****

Palmer, this year’s best quote on the team, had some humorous stories from the concussion he suffered Saturday at Miami.

After the game, I had about 65 text messages ranging from “Holy crap, are you alright?” to “C’mon, man, get up,” depending on who it was. Some of my best friends were making fun of me.”

I don’t see any way Palmer plays against Coastal Carolina, but you can tell Palmer wants to, if for no other reason than it’s his senior season and, as he said, “You get 12 opportunities. You think about how really hard you work for 12 times.”

That said, he said he’s really “hate” himself if he got hit in the head and missed the FSU game. Palmer was asked if any family members were trying to talk him out of playing.

“Yeah, my mom’s really big in my ear right now,” he said. “I’m starting to ignore her phone calls.”
He was just kidding, Mrs. Palmer.

Turns out a groggy Palmer was in the locker room, about to have a cut on his left elbow stitched up by team physician Len Reeves, as Clemson proceeded through its game-winning overtime drive.

“The TV was on, and I saw coach Swinney give the signal,” he said. “And I said, c’mon, Jacoby, you have to make this play. Sure enough, he caught it, I gave Dr. Reeves a hug and took off.

“He was chasing after me, yelling after me. I ran out of the tunnel and didn’t have any socks or shoes on.

“The first guy I saw was (fellow tight end) Durell (Barry), and he looked at me like, “What are you doing?” I was just out there running around with everybody, celebrating.

“I might not have completely known what was going on, but I knew I didn’t want to miss that moment with my teammates. That’s something I’ll never forget.

“I did stay away from everyone’s cleats. I did realize I was barefoot and tried to stay away from everyone.”

****

The impact of the Atlantic Division race aside, the main reason I don’t think C.J. Spiller can sustain his Heisman Trophy candidacy is I don’t see how he can keep up his all-purpose yardage pace.

Because, it bears repeating, at some point folks are just gonna quit kicking to him. Right?

Of course, I’d have thought they’d have stopped long before now. But apparently Miami’s kickoff specialist didn’t get his coaches’ memo to steer clear of Spiller – which makes the second kicker (Middle Tennessee’s as well) who failed to heed his coach’s mandate.

If the Heisman went to the best player, certainly Spiller would merit being a finalist in New York. But it has developed into an honor bestowed upon the best player on the best team (see Ala RB Mark Ingram, Florida QB Tim Tebow, Texas QB Colt McCoy) unless a Notre Dame player (QB Jimmy Clausen) can be squeezed into the conversation by the old guard.

****

If Coastal Carolina’s defense looks familiar this weekend, there’s a reason.

From what I’ve heard, the Chanticleers overhauled their D a year or two ago and copied a lot of the concepts used by former Tigers coordinator Vic Koenning. Except they call their bandit end the “chief” position.

****

Funny how Clemson’s receiving corps has come full circle.

Xavier Dye and Terrance Ashe were deemed starters coming out of the preseason. Then Dye’s inconsistency carried over into the opener and he was benched/left the team/returned and gradually had to work his way back through the ranks. Ashe was basically just invisible the first few games.

Well, now Dye and Ashe joined Jacoby Ford as about the only wideouts to see the field vs. Miami. Marquan Jones, 7 snaps. No Jaron Brown or Brandon Clear. And we still haven’t seen the promised relevant Brandon Ford sighting from two weeks ago.

Which probably explains why the blocking from Clemson’s WRs has improved so much. Dye and Ashe have been dependable as both receivers and blockers since the rotation was pared down for the Wake game.

“When you’re sitting here trying to put together a plan, you’re looking at who you really feel like can be productive for you,” offensive coordinator Billy Napier said. “We kind of narrowed down our focus in terms of who was playing and who we felt could be those guys, and structured the plan around those guys.”

****

Two other tidbits I found interesting today:

1) Ford said he was overcome with tears almost as soon as he scored the game-winner. And they just kept coming and coming. “I couldn’t stop them,” he said.

2) Several times last week, I wrote the opinion that Miami’s defense and offensive line were nothing special. One out of two isn’t bad, right? Miami’s defense gave me credibility. But I had a few defenders tell me today they were thoroughly impressed with Miami’s line and its ability to hold blocks for longer than 3-4 seconds.

And for you fellow draftniks, remember the name Orlando Franklin, a 6-7, 320-pounder. Franklin was their starting left guard, and while a guard’s a guard in the NFL, some pro folks believe he can be a right tackle. But Clemson’s linemen thought he was downright good.

****

You read it here first – Spurs over Celtics in the NBA finals.

10 Miami things

THE FROZEN TUNDRA OF THE UPSTATE – Man, it’s amazing how frigid 60s in the Upstate feels after you’ve basked in the humid glory of the Florida sunshine for only two days.

For the record, went by Grandma’s house on Friday, and the place had been rather modernized. Went by Land Shark Stadium on Saturday, and Clemson had upgraded, too.

So much gets glossed over in a climactic victory like that. Let’s see what I can remember without looking at the film …

1. Junior safety DeAndre McDaniel now has seven interceptions, tied for the national lead with UCLA sophomore Rahim Moore.

McDaniel therefore is unofficially tied for fifth on the team in catches.

2. That’s two straight games now we’ve seen the Jamie Harper that was advertised.

Given the recent history of Clemson’s short-yardage running game in big ballgames, I’m not sure we haven’t understated the significance of his 2-yard gain on fourth-and-1 from the Miami 36 on the final regulation drive, plus the 6-yard gain on third-and-1 from the Clemson 49 four plays earlier.

And if not for Kyle Parker’s interception in the end zone, Harper’s 2-yard gain on third-and-1 from the Miami 6 sustained what was shaping into a potential go-ahead drive as well.

He claims nothing has changed, but he certainly appears to be running with more decisiveness. And his pass-blocking just might be the best among Clemson’s backs, too.

3. ABC/ESPN clocked C.J. Spiller at a max of 28 miles per hour on his kickoff return touchdown.

A quick Web search suggests that perhaps Reggie Bush was once clocked at 22 mph on a punt return, while Usain Bolt supposedly hit 23 mph during his 100m Olympics run.

Which tells me a few things. 1) The technology used by the network is as credible as some of its studio analysts; no way Spiller is as fast with pads on as Bolt sailing down the track. And 2) I can only hope that Miami Dolphins GM Jeff Ireland’s subtle trip over to shake Spiller’s hand before Saturday’s game is a draft harbinger to come.

Spiller is the most dynamic player in the college game, bar none. It’s a shame he has lacked the offensive line/running stats/team success required to stick on the national publicity radar.

4. All this said, I’m not sure I totally buy Dabo Swinney’s explanation that Spiller sat out lengthy stretches of Saturday’s game solely because of a predetermined rotation and coaches’ feel for the situations.

Sure, Spiller deserves to be gassed immediately after some of these long plays and returns. And I can understand that an increased role as a receiver further taps that energy reserve, and Clemson wants to keep him fresh in order to maximize his talents when in the game.

But it’s been a stunningly common occurrence for Spiller to be standing on the sideline, appearing as if nothing is wrong, while others are in the game during key stretches – and it’s not been exclusive to the Miami conclusion, either.

Swinney said his use (or non-use) has not been related to Spiller aggravating his turf toe, or suffering from a lack of conditioning because of how much he rests during weekly practices in order to help/not hurt the toe.

Maybe I should have stayed in a Holiday Inn Express while on this last trip …

5. Who’d have thought that, for varying reasons both within and beyond all their control, fullback Chad Diehl would emerge as the biggest contributor from the foursome of Byrnes High signees?

Diehl continues to be a bulldozer out of the I formation (and a work in progress as a pass-catcher). To think he played left tackle and linebacker in high school.

And to think how hard it must be, in this day and age of spread formations and gimmicky offenses at the high school level, how hard it must be for coaches to recruit for a real fullback these days.

Speaking of blocking, kudos to Jacoby Ford and Andre Ellington for nice seal blocks on Spiller’s kickoff return.

Plus veteran WRs Xavier Dye and Terrance Ashe might not be putting up eye-catching numbers, but they have come through when thrown to the last two games, as well as have provided solid run-blocking.

6. Speaking of blocking, pt. 2 – it will be worth monitoring how Swinney handles the personnel at right guard and right tackle these next two weeks.

From my vantage point and untrained eye, backup Mason Cloy gave them a much more reliable performance vs. Miami than starter Antoine McClain, who continues to have a few whiffs each game that jeopardize the existence of someone in the backfield.

McClain generates more push in run-blocking, so there’s a trade-off. But it should be noted Cloy was in on Clemson’s overtime series.

McClain also has more of that dangerous P word – potential, based on his mammoth frame and strength.

David Smith also logged a lot of snaps at right tackle, but Swinney said he several times compensated for technique blunders with his sheer athleticism. I’d speculate Landon Walker’s job is in less immediate jeopardy, perhaps only because the staff seemed to trust Walker more by having him in there on that final OT series, too.

7. Miami offensive coordinator Mark Whipple did nothing to loosen his foothold as the ACC’s pre-eminent play-caller and offensive orchestrator (don’t think that’s even a word).

But these last two games have shown that Clemson has the expertise to craft a diverse plan, utilize its talents and make adjustments, too.

There’s no way to surmise how much of what we see is a reflection of Swinney’s influence relative to that of coordinator Billy Napier, especially in the two-minute drill.

Judging by the philosophical principles involved, though, I think it’s safe to suggest Napier has shown the last two weeks that he can be awfully good at his job.

But Swinney deserves some credit for how those final drives against Miami were produced, too, because his fingerprint was on some of the decision-making for what was run.

8. I find war analogies distasteful in sports, but I’m struggling to find even another cliché to make this point – while Clemson defensive coordinator Kevin Steele “won the war” because of the team’s overtime stop (OK, and maybe McDaniel’s INT return TD in the 4^th), it felt like Whipple won most of the battles.

Swinney said Sunday that 282 of Miami’s 433 yards came via 10 plays – those “chunk” plays Clemson coaches were harping on throughout the week. And it surprises me Miami managed to average 5.1 yards per carry.

Don’t think Da’Quan Bowers (season-low two tackles) had his best game fulfilling his duties there, and it appeared live that Clemson’s inside linebackers and safeties had a lot of instances where they were out of position on Miami runs.

The Tigers did an OK job of “affecting” QB Jacory Harris from time to time, tallying three sacks and three interceptions (one a ball off his WR hands). But Steele suggested that Miami used max protection a lot more than it had ever shown – a nod of respect to Clemson’s four-man front.

Schematically, I thought Steele called a pretty doggone good game. But talent mismatches won out on several of Miami’s drives.

9. Coastal Carolina has been so awful this season, I’d put Spiller and TE Michael Palmer (concussion) on furlough this week. Not allowed to even come in the building to check the game plan.

10. But if they want to get a head start on Florida State preparations, then have at it.

The Tigers are in the driver’s seat in the Atlantic, and we know how that’s turned out in recent years.

But as dysfunctional and defensively deficient as the Seminoles (1-3 ACC) have been this season, I think they are a real threat to the Tigers in two weeks.

Theirs is a potent passing attack comparable to Miami’s, with the added dimension of QB Christian Ponder’s running ability. At this stage, Ponder would be in my final foursome for ACC player of the year along with Georgia Tech QB Josh Nesbitt, Spiller and Harris.

You know, I never thought I would be insinuating that the Tigers shouldn’t sleep on FSU.

If not for the Big 12 North, the Atlantic might stake claim to the meekest division in Division I. (Note that Kansas State leads that division, mainly because former Clemson coordinator Vic Koenning’s defense has held Texas A&M and Colorado to a combined 20 points the last two weeks).

Miami forecast: Mas de lo mismo

SoBe – Ocean breeze. Sunshine. Palm trees. Highs in the upper 80s, lows in the 70s.

Now this is football weather.

OK, maybe not from where we come from. But having endured rain and dreary conditions at every Clemson home game so far this season, tropical warm is a welcome change.

This is also what Christmas was like in the Strelow household, as my late grandma lived about two blocks off the beach in Fort Lauderdale. The main personal attraction to this trip for me was seeing how and if the new owners had modernized her home (beyond the presumed gutting of the lime green shag carpet).

Come to think of it, that’s my measure for the Tigers this trip, too (no, not the carpet, although it might have been older than 39-year-old head coach Dabo Swinney).

Will this be the same Clemson road team that, as it did in its first two away games this year, comes out sedated? The one where Kyle Parker is erratic? And a receiving corpse? And a defense that wilts when momentum starts building against it? The one where Swinney & Co. try coaching the Tigers out of it with a few calls that backfire horribly?

Or will this be an extension of the Clemson team that came to a head last week? That was a perfect storm the likes of which I think would be unfair to set as the weekly standard. But we finally saw the Tigers successfully do some things from a play-calling and execution standpoint that they arguably could have been doing from the outset of the season.

For a while, I have thought Clemson matches up with No. 8 Miami as well as anyone in the league. The Tigers have the defensive front and secondary to challenge Miami’s diverse passing game. And beyond that passing game, the Hurricanes aren’t anything special, either along the offensive line or on defense in general.

But before the Maryland debacle, we swore off analyzing the match-ups because with the Tigers, it has so rarely been about that. So we’re sticking with consistency.

Here’s thinking Clemson gives Miami a serious run Saturday. But its vulnerabilities in underneath pass coverage will make the difference.

An upset victory wouldn’t surprise me in the least. But for the sake of putting my name to a prediction, I can’t ignore my unofficial slogan for the 2009 season: Until proven otherwise …

Until the Tigers prove they can handle fourth-quarter pressure and beat a top team, they’re still gonna be the equivalent to my grandma’s house.

A property with great potential and some ideal amenities. But somebody has some interior work to do in order to bring said property up to market value.

(By the way, “Mas de lo mismo” translates to “more of the same” in Spanish).

PREDICTION: MIAMI 27, CLEMSON 24