A mockable draft

As promised … know so many of you have been hitting the refresh button … here’s my mock draft that will (in edited form) appear in Saturday’s paper.

For just about any other sporting “event,” I feel guilty if I stay inside and veg in front of the TV when the weather outside is even simply tolerable. Not this weekend. Last year I ate six brats, two hoagies and other assorted munchies through the course of the first three rounds. It’s just a shame they’ve condensed the first day for prime-time purposes.

On to the pure speculation:

1. Detroit QB Matt Stafford, Georgia

Must think this is the baseball draft, where arm strength alone merits ridiculous overpayment. Really, what else does Stafford bring to the table? There isn’t a QB in this class I’d spend a first-rounder on. But they have to try to sell tickets in a miserable market, so it makes sense from a business standpoint. Just not a football one.

2. St. Louis LT Jason Smith, Baylor

C’mon, do they really want to prolong Marc Bulger’s career by protecting his blindside? Beginning to think this guy is a figment of the imagination because no one’s bothered to try to undercut his stock. This franchise just keeps getting more and more boring to watch by the year.

3. Kansas City LT Eugene Monroe, Virginia

Defies the Bill Parcells tree wisdom, but there aren’t great 3-4 defense prospects this year, especially for this money. The mock trend is to plug LSU end Tyson Jackson in here, but in my opinion you can find those guys in the market, as opposed to 3-4 OLBs or nose tackles. Chiefs only have one decent lineman locked up beyond this year, so best guess has them going to Virginia for a second straight year. Question is, because Monroe’s only a left tackle, can Branden Albert play right? KC’s pick is the wild card for the entire top-15.

4. Washington (via trade) QB Mark Sanchez, Southern California

Leave it to Snyder to cave into the Sanchez craze and pay a high price to trade with Seattle. If the Seahawks keep it, they’d be crazy not to take Wake Forest LB Aaron Curry. But no one’s ever accused the Jim Mora clan of sanity.

5. Cleveland LB Aaron Curry, Wake Forest

Browns luck into a stud with a pick they otherwise would have fouled up. I’d still trade Brady Quinn if possible.

6. Cincinnati LT Andre Smith, Alabama

Central Casting couldn’t have produced a more fitting match.

7. Oakland WR Michael Crabtree, Texas Tech

Al Davis envisions another Tim Brown, then signs retired Brown to $10 million free-agent deal. Most mocks have Missouri WR Jeremy Maclin here because of Davis’ love for speedsters.

8. Jacksonville DT B.J. Raji, Boston College

Jack Del Rio creates a superb foundation for the next coach.

9. Green Bay DE Tyson Jackson, LSU

About time the Packers drafted their next QB for the future and let him preserve for a decade. I’d go OT Michael Oher, if I were them.

10. San Francisco OLB Brian Orakpo, Texas

Alex Smith is that Volkswagon bug in the garage they just won’t get rid of, regardless how hideous or useless it is.

11. Buffalo OT Michael Oher, Mississippi

If author Michael Lewis can write a bestseller off Oher, think what new teammate Terrell Owens has to offer.

12. Denver ILB Rey Maualuga, Southern California

Too bad Maualuga won’t be in New York so Erin Andrews can conduct his post-selection interview.

13. Seattle WR Jeremy Maclin, Missouri

Truth be told, I don’t see why they’d invest in a first-round receiver. But all media reports from there suggest receiver is a need despite how much they have tied into Deion Branch and T.J. Housh.

14. New Orleans CB Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State

Management sedates Sean Payton in order to pick defense. Which is a shame for those of us who own Drew Brees in keeper leagues.

15. Houston LB Brian Cushing, Southern California

Because a nondescript defense needs another blasé player. You can interchange fellow Trojans LB Clay Matthews here, too.

16. San Diego RB Chris Wells, Ohio State

They see another Michael Turner. We see a fragile runner with foot problems.

17. N.Y. Jets QB Josh Freeman, Kansas State

Jets bow to public sentiment when they could land the equivalent who is just as mediocre, Washington’s Jason Campbell, much cheaper.

18. Denver DT Peria Jerry, Mississippi

Jerry, aka “Pooh” + Kyle Orton + 2010 1^st-rounder still doesn’t equal Jay Cutler’s value

19. Tampa Bay CB Vontae Davis, Illinois

Apparently the Bucs don’t stop at major character red flags.

20. Detroit DE Robert Ayers, Tennessee

If Michigan State played for the dying auto industry, then the auto industry ought to be fighting for the Lions.

21. Philadelphia RB Knowshon Moreno, Georgia

Eagles scouting department makes its first credible pick since drafting starting back Brian Westbrook in 2002.

22. Minnesota WR Darrius Heyward-Bey, Maryland

Brought to you by the same team that picked USC’s Troy Williamson in 2005 because of his speed alone. Also the same team that’s used high picks on Sidney Rice and Aundrae Allison in consecutive years. But clearly they need someone who can maximize QB Sage Rosenfels’ stupendous 20-yard range.

23. New England CB Darius Butler, Connecticut

Pencil him into the 2011 Pro Bowl on Belichek’s reputation alone. To quote SI’s Peter King, the Patriots have put out rumors that they like the kid. Which, in their reverse pyschology, is the smokescreen that indicates they like the kid — ditto for how they treated Jerod Mayo last year. And they know if they don’t take him here, the Dolphins probably will two picks later.

24. Atlanta OLB Larry English, N. Illinois

Between last year’s Matt Ryan pick and the Tony Gonzalez trade, they can mail it in and still be happy. Looking for some combo of a DT, OLB and S among their first three picks (I smell a Chris Clemons selection in the third).

25. Miami WR Hakeem Nicks, UNC

Because I errantly trust Parcells to do the right thing instead of bypassing the draft’s top receiver on principle. But that’s letting my mancrush on Nicks cloud my better judgment.

26. Baltimore TE Brandon Pettigrew, Oklahoma State

Not ideal as a fantasy player, but will quickly rank among league’s most well-rounded TEs. And GM Ozzie Newsome always snatches the top player left on the board instead of drafting for need.

27. Indianapolis DT Evander Hood, Missouri

Jim Caldwell wasn’t good enough for Wake Forest, but is to replace Tony Dungy. Discuss.

28. Buffalo OLB Aaron Maybin, Penn State

Right here, GMs are starting to get giddy they can justify the risk of taking Percy Harvin in the second round.

29. N.Y. Giants CB Sean Smith, Utah

Of course, this is presuming they’re smart enough to pull the trigger on the 2^nd-round price tag Anquan Boldin now carries. Otherwise the draft options under consideration here to replace Plaxico Burress — namely Rutgers’ Kenny Britt and Ohio State’s Brian Robiskie — aren’t any better than what they have in Domenik Hixon.

30. Tennessee CB Alphonso Smith, Wake Forest

Add two inches, and Smith and instate product D.J. Moore would top-15 picks.

31. Arizona RB Donald Brown, Connecticut

Perhaps the back in the draft now is now buried behind a putrid O-line (even if it was sufficient enough to get the Cards to the Super Bowl). Big fan of Brown.

32. Pittsburgh OT Eben Britton, Arizona

They make a living stashing away their 1^st-rounders for a year or two. And a few evaluators suggest Britton would have been a sure 1st-rounder next year if he’d have returned for his senior year.

My Big Board:

1. Curry 2. Raji 3. English 4. Jenkins 5. Oher 6. Monroe 7. Nicks 8. Pettigrew 9. Jackson 10. Maualuga 11. Butler 12. Brown 13. Moreno 14. Alphonso Smith 15. Jason Smith

Biggest busts, based on their perceived value:

1. Take your pick among Crabtree and Maclin, both of whom were in spread college offenses in which the receivers neither run pro routes nor face pro coverages (Heyward-Bey’s a bust, too, but for different reasons) 2. Any first-round quarterback 3. Brian Orakpo (Texas guys max out in college, and he’s got Vernon Gholston/workout warrior written all over him) 4. Clint Sintim, a likely 2nd-round 3-4 OLB out of Virginia. 5. N.C. State RB Andre Brown, another guy whose stock has risen to 2nd- or 3rd-round level but never lived up to the potential in college.

Steals (in no particular order)

A. Oregon CB Jairus Byrd, a projected 2nd-rounder B. Vandy corner D.J. Moore, likewise. C. USC LB Jasper Brinkley, who should start rounding into form now that he’s two years removed from knee surgery D. Iowa RB Shonn Greene (ah, throw in Michigan State’s Javon Ringer, too) E. Maryland corner Kevin Barnes, a projected mid- to late-rounder.

Saturday morning note: In my haste, I errantly forgot my No. 1 steal, Rice WR Jarrett Dillard, this year’s Eddie Royal. Maybe that kind of oversight shows I shouldn’t be running anyone’s draft board anytime soon.