B(u)y the UVa. numbers

One snippet I failed to pass along from defensive coordinator Kevin Steele:

Steele was asked his thought at possibly winning the Atlantic Division on Saturday.

He replied that he should only be asked that if the Tigers win, and when the reporter suggested that surely Steele was thinking about it, here was his response:

“No. I’m thinking about what they’re going to line up in. You start thinking about that other stuff, then you put emotional pressure on yourself – (and) all that other stuff will never happen.

“It’s not the lottery, where you go buy a ticket and sit in front of the TV and say, ‘Boy, if I keep watching TV, there’s No. 1 and No. 2 …’ You ‘d better go to work. That’s where the real money comes from. You can sit at home all day and rub that lottery ticket, but if you don’t go to work, you may not have any money.”

I just picture Steele, in those days after he was fired from Baylor, sitting on his sofa, waiting for lottery numbers to be flashed on the TV screen during a syndicated evening rerun of “Night Court” or something. And then slamming his visor and defiantly grumbling about “the process.”

“You do something for 28 years, and you get beat by Louisiana-Monroe (when he was at Alabama) or you’re undefeated, No. 1 in the country and you’re down 20-7 with seven minutes to go in the fourth quarter against Kansas (Nebraska, maybe???) and they’ve won three games – you don’t have to fall off a truck but so many times until you start learning from successful people what you need to focus on.”

Here are some of the numbers I’ve focused on, many of which lead one to conclude Clemson should win comfortably Saturday. Which, of course, isn’t to say they will.

****

4 – rushing TDs Clemson has allowed in 10 games

2 – Virginia rushing TDs the last five games

3 – Virginia defensive TDs in that span

118 – Cavs’ national ranking, out of 120, in total offense

Ugh. I think Virginia’s offense is exponentially more formidable with Jameel Sewell at quarterback instead of Marc Verica – Sewell’s running ability gives them an extra (or single) dimension, and I’m argue he’s a more dangerous passer than Verica.

So yes, Dabo Swinney, the Cavs are capable of prevailing.

But I’d be inclined to believe it would take a sloppy offensive performance from Clemson – QB Kyle Parker in particular – to keep Virginia in it.

And …

35 – the stunningly minimal number of points opponents have scored off Clemson’s 19 turnovers

17 – Virginia’s highest point total the last four games (vs. Boston College, Miami, Duke and Georgia Tech).

****

We knew Steele’s defense would prevalently feature man-to-man secondary coverage and a more aggressive approach in terms of pressuring the quarterback. But you might not have surmised …

633 – most snaps played this season by a single defender

DeAndre McDaniel? Brandon Maye? Nope. Marcus Gilchrist, nickel cornerback and occasional free safety

15 – team-high for individual quarterback pressures

Defensive ends Ricky Sapp or Da’Quan Bowers, the team’s sack leaders? Nope. Maye, the middle linebacker

10 – team-high tackles for loss

Then Maye, right? Bowers? Sapp gets you partial credit … but he’s tied with defensive tackle Jarvis Jenkins

****

If you’d have told me before the season that sophomore Marquan Jones would rank seventh on the team in catches at this stage, I’d have bet that Clemson’s offense was putrid – because I firmly believed Jones would be the team’s second-best wideout.

7 – Jones’ total snaps the last two games (6 vs. N.C. State, 1 vs. FSU).

Boy, I didn’t expect Jones to fall that far off the map.

But you can see why – Xavier Dye, Pt. 2 (pictured) and Terrance Ashe have risen to the occasion since the bye week, and their contributions as both reliable pass-catchers and standout run-blockers (neither of which are Jones’ strengths) have aided the offensive outburst.

****

Virginia’s defense suffers no shortage of talent.

DE Nate Collins (6-2, 290) is vastly underrated and has five sacks, more than either Bowers or Sapp. Inside LB Steve Greer (6-2, 225) is a freshman with heaping upside. And both corners, senior Chris Cook (6-2, 210) and junior Ras-I Dowling (6-2, 200), figure to have pro careers ahead.

But their 3-4 scheme doesn’t seem to be doing them any tangible favors.

6 – games the Cavs have allowed at least 26 points (including to William & Mary, Southern Miss and Duke)

4 – straight games Virginia has allowed at least 300 yards of total offense. The opponent hit 424 yards in three of the four

On the other hand …

90 – percent of opponents Virginia has held below its season passing yard average

But in the end …

58.7 – more rushing yards per game Clemson is averaging this season (170.2, compared to 111.5 last year)
+
12.4 – percent improvement in Parker’s completion rate during the Tigers’ five-game winning streak
+
9 – seniors in the starting lineup, with the chance to reach the ACC championship by winning their last game at Death Valley
=
1 – Clemson’s first ACC title game appearance since the ACC went to the split division format five years ago