Virginia forecast: Going, Grohing, gone to Tampa
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney turns 40 today (Friday), and if this weekend goes as he surely hopes, he’ll have the means to buy plenty of tacky coffee mugs to celebrate the milestone … well, maybe one of several milestones.
The question is, will Virginia amount to his birthday cupcake?
The Cavs’ candle looks like it should have been blown out already.
To rehash, the 18th-ranked Tigers win the Atlantic Division crown and advance to the Dec. 5 ACC title game (vs. Georgia Tech) in Tampa, Fla., through one of three ways:
- 1. Beating Virginia (3-7, 2-4) in Saturday’s 3:30 p.m. game. OR
- 2. Surging UNC wins at co-leader Boston College in Saturday’s noon game. OR
- 3. Boston College loses to the Terribles, er, Terrapins of Maryland next Saturday.
The odds of any of those three happening are in that order, from most likely to least.
As usual, there are any number of scenarios by which Virginia could prove Clemson’s buzz kill.
The Cavs have two good corners who could make the Tigers pay for a poor Kyle Parker read or an bounce-pass off somebody’s chest. Clemson’s offensive line is indeed improved, but not to the degree where you’d be at all stunned to see them botching assignments vs. Virginia’s 3-4 front or getting stonewalled on power plays.
QB Jameel Sewell is a serviceable run-pass threat, and WR Vic Hall is a trick play waiting to happen after his turn as a QB earlier this year. Toss in an atrocious special team mistake or two (Clemson missed FGs and PATs notwithstanding), and you have the formula for a tension-builder.
Especially against a Clemson team with so much at stake – and a history choking under this pressure.
Can this (im)perfect storm occur? Sure. Worse teams have wrecked Clemson seasons in recent memory.
Just don’t see it happening this time.
This Clemson team still has its imperfections, some of which have been glossed over by virtue of its five-game winning streak.
But it has consistently shown that it plays to win instead of not to lose, and that trait alone may be why I believe the Tigers will get the monkey off their back.
OK, that, and a few other reasons.
Virginia has incurred four straight losses, and administration appears set to put the “go” in Al Groh. It came within inches of a chance to knock off Boston College last week and has every reason to go through the motions.
The bar, in my opinion, is as simple as this: If Clemson can exceed 17 points, it should win.
From what we’ve seen of the Tigers’ offense and defense the last month, there’s no reason either shouldn’t be able to hold up their end of the bargain.
And then Swinney won’t be the ACC’s biggest head-coaching bargain any longer (see a $1 million annual raise for the final four years of his contract).
PREDICTION: CLEMSON 27, VIRGINIA 14
11 Comments to “Virginia forecast: Going, Grohing, gone to Tampa”
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Clemson Beat writer Paul Strelow blogs about Clemson University athletics.
Paul,
I agree with the order of the chances of the three scenerios.
90% Chance Clemson beats Virginia
66% Chance UNC beats BC
25% Chance Md beats BC
It gets decided this weekend and Clemson needs to win this one no matter what happens in Boston.
Next week is all about a run to the top 10 (with a win in Tampa) to give CJ any chance to go to NY.
If Dabo wants to come through with giving CJ his chance he has to give him more touches from the line of scrimmage in these next 3 games.
CJ is 364 yards from 1200 yards rushing. I think he needs to reach that number. The receiving and returning numbers are the icing he needs to counteract Ingrams bigger rushing total.
Go Tigers. Go CJ
Only a 13 point win? No, I think we will blow them out on Senior Day. I’m more worried about the USC game.
I always wind up going conservative in the end. Just my nature. Really feeling more of a 30-10, to be honest.
I am not a betting man, but if I were I’d take UVA and the 21 points in this one. I honestly believe Clemson’s going to win, but I think its going to be a tight one.
UVA’s slow (boring) conservative offense chews up a lot of clock, which could keep it low scoring.
This will be Parker’s first time seeing a 3-4 that plays a soft zone coverage. Will Parker stay patient and take what the defense gives him? or will he force a couple of passes in the direction of UVA’s extremely capable corners?
Will Matt Skinner have a good day snapping the ball? A snap over the punter’s head could give UVA hope/momentum
Clemson is the far superior team, but they also have the pressure of closing out a division race, and the weight of our passionate fan base on their shoulders. Are they going to come out and play with confidence? or are they going to come out and play tight or overly aggresive?
Im hoping for the blow out win, so that Clemson can give a fitting send off to its senior Tigers (Spiller, Palmer, and Ford), but I just have a bad feeling that this is going to be a close one
Clemson 20
UVA 17
Paul, you had the spread nailed and went and messed up by revising it to “Really feeling more of a 30-10, to be honest” to NCTiger. I admit I felt the same way as NCTiger and you…..expected a 3 score difference. But I’m pleased. Tigers won. Weather was great. Nice crowd. Great pre & half time shows and the Tigers play 14 games this year.
YCAlum:
I like to hedge my bets so that looking back, I can say I was right (and ignore that I was also wrong).
Hey Paul,
I thought Kyle Parker played GREAT. I really think he is one his way to being on the best QBs in the country. He’s got talent pouring out of his eyeballs…..
Thought he played well, but there were 2-3 decisions that could have been costly that he got away with, IMO.
Apparently the offense was abuzz watching Parker’s TD throw to Ford in the film room Monday. OC Billy Napier supposedly proclaimed it “Brett Favre-ish.”
If our site ever gets it blog servers addressed, I touched on Parker a bit in the “10 Virginia things” entry I posted Sunday afternoon. The main blog page has it, but it hasn’t been updated with a link on The State’s main sports Web page.
This may be an ignorant question but how do i get to the main blog page?
Nevermind, I found it.