10 things return manifesto

1. Ah, ‘tis the season for mock NFL drafts to start surfacing now that the rough order of the draft is taking shape.

Because they’ll be in Nashville prepping for the Dec. 27 Music City Bowl, C.J. Spiller and his teammates are scheduled to spend Christmas night at LP Field watching the Tennessee Titans play the San Diego Chargers.

While there, Spiller should thank Titans RB Chris Johnson for contributing to the gift that figures to keep on giving to the Spiller family for years to come.

Johnson headlines a fleet of young running backs who have defied the traditional NFL mold, arguably increasing Spiller’s value in the forthcoming draft.

Used to be that NFL teams placed its premium on the conventional I-formation back, 5-10, 225 pounds minimum, who could handle the feature load and a steady dose of between-the-tackles running (see Alabama’s Mark Ingram).

With the college game having transformed into variations of the shotgun spread offense, the NFL has slowly adjusted or been forced to adjust. And in the increasingly specialized pro game, the trend has been to forge a two-back system with a home run threat to complement the inside runner.

Thus speedsters such as Johnson, Felix Jones, Darren McFadden, Jamaal Charles and Jerious Norwood have all been early round picks, arguably valued much greater than they would have been a decade ago (unless, of course, Oakland is making the pick).

Spiller projects as the top running back available in April’s draft and a probable first-round pick. And he stands to benefit most financially from the successes of Johnson, who has proven more durable and more versatile than the assigned stereotype.

His success, in my opinion, hinges on which team selects Spiller. And I maintain the lower he goes in the first round, the better.

Spiller would bring immense value to an offense already featuring a cast of playmakers. For example, plug him in at New England, which has two 1st-rounders courtesy of a theft from the Raiders. Give him 10-15 carries per game as well as a role in the Pats’ screen passing game, and that offense becomes even more dynamic.

New Orleans is thought to have consider trading or cutting Reggie Bush this offseason because he’s going to count at least $13.5 million against the Saints’ cap next year, more than 10 percent of its space; there’s another system that would accentuate Spiller’s talents. Speaking of that Christmas game – how about Spiller as the replacement for LaDanian Tomlinson?

On the flip side, it doesn’t do running backs (who have a shorter shelf life anyhow) any favors to be chosen by a sorry team.

Imagine the karma of Spiller going to Cleveland, where he could be reunited with James Davis as the “Thunder & Lightning” behind an offensive line as big a natural disaster as Clemson’s was a year ago.

Seattle looks like a prime candidate for a team looking for explosive splash at running back, and that franchise has gone down the drain through a rash of horrid personnel decisions.

He’d just better hope no Bucs big wigs were on hand for his career-best performance in Tampa Bay’s stadium during the ACC championship.

2. Forget for a moment whether you believe Spiller was worthy of a Heisman Trophy invite.

I’d love to know the company line for why Florida QB Tim Tebow received a formal invite as a player (and not a past winner) when Spiller did not.

According to Heisman rules, the accounting firm that handles tabulation – Deloitte – determines the “natural break” in the voting numbers and sets the finalists accordingly. Only rule is, there can be no fewer than three and no more than six.

The top three in the closest race in Heisman history were Alabama RB Mark Ingram (1,304), Stanford RB Toby Gerhart (1,276) and Texas QB Colt McCoy (1,145).

Next highest was Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh (815). There’s a definite gap between third and fourth, but Suh had enough votes to merit inclusion, to be sure.

Then came Tebow (390), without even half of Suh’s votes, followed by Spiller (223) and Boise State QB Kellen Moore (100).

You could even justify Tebow’s inclusion if invites were admittedly extended on a subjective basis. But the rules state it’s based on statistical analysis.

Tebow was going on the Heisman’s dime anyhow. But it’s interesting how they subverted the process to do so.

3. Amazing fact: Spiller was the first ACC player to finish in the top six of the Heisman race since 2000 when Florida State quarterback Chris Weinke won the award.

That’s not going to be in the ACC’s sales pitch as it negotiates in next TV contract.

On the flip side, we’re bound to hear over the next couple of months how the ACC has produced among the highest number of NFL draft picks over the last handful of years, right there with the SEC.

So, what does the stat suggest?

The ACC has really suffered from offensive impotency this decade, stemming from poor quarterback play/recruitment/development?

The league hasn’t produced a bona fide national title contender, thus preventing a best player-on-best team candidate to emerge?

Or, like the Big East, the national perception of the ACC is so poor that its players suffer credibility-wise as a result?

Quick estimation: D) All of the above.

4. “It’s the most wonderful time … of the year!”

Yes, Andy Williams’ Christmas classic has been ruined by ESPN associating it with a promo for thrilling postseason contests like the San Diego Credit Union or Little Caesars bowls (does a place offering $5 pizza crusts with a shred of cheese really stand to benefit from the exposure?)

But this week in particular has been near and dear to a recruitnik’s heart in recent years.

It’s Shrine Bowl week.

Unfortunately, it’s no longer feasible for me to be at each and every practice scouting most of the highest-profile recruits from North and South Carolina. And the event has lost some luster because there’s no longer the social networking element, as the NCAA now bans major college coaches from attending to evaluate (and job hunt).

But I’m hoping to squeeze in a practice somewhere between my Clemson responsibilities this week, if for no other reason than to have a better feel for what the Tigers’ commitments and recruiting targets bring to the table, for better and worse.

Always fascinated how some player rises from obscurity to net major offers, when it’s not as if college teams haven’t scouted him thoroughly before. Makes you wonder how the careers of guys like FSU’s Dekoda Watson, Clemson LT Chris Hairston and Georgia Tech linebacker Sedric Griffin would have turned out without this showcase. Of course, for every Hairston, there’s a Jamal Medlin.

Do a monthly state of South Carolina recruiting piece for the ACC Sports Journal, and this month, I put together a Shrine Bowl primer with evaluations from two analysts and friends – Ryan Bartow of TigerIllustrated.com and Miller Safrit of Scout.com.

Spoiler alert – three guys they both listed as under-the-radar South Carolina players who could make names for themselves this week: Pageland Central TE Keagan Funderburk (sign and place with Michigan, Wisconsin offers), Chester C R.J. Canty and Dorman OL Andrew Bailey (Liberty commit).

5. When we media folks last spoke with Dabo Swinney last week, he stoked the fires a tad by declaring some personnel changes could be in order if a few defensive players maintained their recent level of performances.

“We’ve got a couple of guys not playing well at all, it’s real simple,” Swinney said. “I think we’ve got to challenge them or put somebody else in there.”

Swinney declined to cite specific positions or names, but it seems fair to extrapolate that one of those spots is linebacker.

Brandon Maye did not play well at middle linebacker down the stretch, and I’d be curious to know coaches’ truthful take on the play of weakside LB Kavell Conner, who appears steady and reliable but limited in terms of range.

By and large, I took Swinney’s words as primarily a lighter under Maye’s rear that he must play with more focus, win more physical battles and eliminate the costly penalties fueled by his explosive temperament.

That said, it’s going to be interesting to see how much the defensive staff uses the next two weeks – bowl game included – to expedite the development of the backups, freshman middle backer Corico Hawkins and redshirt freshman “Will” Jonathan Willard.

Steele has generally worked in systems that favor thick, stout inside backers who can support the run first and foremost. And if Maye (6-2, 235) continues to be washed out of plays, at what point does Hawkins (around 5-10 at best, 230-plus pounds) get his chance to show what he can do?

For that matter, Willard continues to impress me with his activity in limited action. And note that he received 13 snaps in the ACC title game – more than double what he’d tallied the previous six games (6).

In terms of body types, I actually think they are better fits at the other’s position – Hawkins at will, Willard at mike. So I imagine it’s within the realm of possibility that option could be looked at in the spring as well. But the sense I get is that Hawkins is a good bit better at being the defensive “play-caller” for Steele – checking the defense into a call based on formations, etc.

Either way, will be interesting to watch how their interior linebacker rotation takes shape through the spring.

6. Here’s betting plenty of Clemson fans will find a rooting interest for wherever QB Willy Korn transfers, and deservedly so.

An interesting element to the “where” decision is “when.”

Gardner-Webb, for example, is a locale I threw out a few months ago as a potential destination with some legs to it.

But I’d argue that Korn could call G-Webb coaches now or in June, and they’d still take him because the various benefits he could offer that program.

Don’t know how close Korn is to making a call, but I’m told he “has put out a lot of hooks” and is keeping his options open.

A smart approach for someone who is itching to prove he can be a winner at the FBS level. You never know what programs are going to be intrigued in an immediate fix at quarterback after semester grades come out or recruiting shakes out.

If he’s not going to arrive until the summer, it only makes sense to wait before committing somewhere.

7. On one hand, I look at Clemson’s recruiting class (20 commitments, all but five deemed three stars or lower by Rivals.com) and wonder whether two consecutive “meh” classes will catch up to Swinney before his tenure is over.

At a minimum, it lacks the apparent difference makers such as Spiller, JD, Da’Quan Bowers and Ricky Sapp – the types of high-ceiling talents that gave Clemson its presumed edge this year.

On the other hand, if the Tigers fend off the wolves to retain all their current commits, it still looks better on paper than the 2004 haul that had so many lower-rated players turn out to be quality starters (Mike Hamlin, Chris Clemons, Dorell Scott, Aaron Kelly, Rashaad Jackson, Cullen Harper, Barry Richardson, Phillip Merling before prep school – none given more than three stars).

8. In the preseason, I believed the biggest reason Clemson’s defense would improve had to do with schematic psychology.

Always thought former coordinator Vic Koenning was never given enough credit for his product because it lacked machismo. That said, I believed its fatal flaw was promoting a “play not to lose” mentality that invariably led to the defense buckling and the opponent mounting a game-winning fourth quarter drive.

Kevin Steele came in and instituted the man coverage and pressure packages that had the defense playing to win.

Well, after giving up fourth-quarter leads to Georgia Tech (twice), TCU and Miami, maybe I need to rethink that theory.

Given Steele’s disregard for punching his hand into solid objects, maybe I should keep future theories to myself.

9. Not going to put words into Clemson players’ mouths and contend they don’t care about the Music City Bowl, because maybe they will play inspired for any number of reasons.

But the ticket sales, as expected, confirm the event is perceived as scant more than a token parting gift for a season that climaxed with the ACC title game.

Clemson has sold 4,000 tickets. Kentucky – almost 16,000, four times more. And that’s not counting the nearly roughly 4,000 that were scooped up from the bowl when news broke the Wildcats were the likely SEC selection.

Which isn’t to say I disagree with the relative apathy. If I’d paid to take the fam to Tampa for the ACC championship, doubt I’m going to fork over however many hundreds it would take to inconveniently hustle to Nashville the day after Christmas, especially when most people would have to take a vacation day because they are scheduled to be back to work the morning after the 8:30 p.m. game.

Watching it for free from the confines of my sofa with an endless supply of buffalo wing dip would indeed be the more attractive option.

10. On sheer principle, I thought about rooting for Clemson to reach the Orange Bowl so I would watch it in person – instead of being subjected to one more Fox college football telecast.

It’s not possible to cast worse announcers or have a lower production quality – perhaps understandable given the money/Guam’s GNP that Fox shelled out for BCS broadcast rights, thus influencing NCAA presidents to chirp something about academics whenever the word “playoffs” is brought up.

Which makes me all the more leery of banter about the ACC and the Pac-10 apparently negotiating with Fox about packaging its football and basketball rights into a mega-deal that would – as best as hoped – slightly marginalize ESPN’s sugar daddy deal with the SEC (OK, not really).

What do you think – would the increased revenue help the league more than it would hurt to lose the ESPN audience?