Exam break evaluation time

It would be hard to understate the importance of what happened Thursday night for the South Carolina men’s basketball team. In this reporter’s humble opinion, it has the potential to be a season-changer.

Yes, the Gamecocks nearly blew another big lead. Yes, the game should have gone to overtime if not for a free throw miss by Providence. But unlike past close losses, this time the breaks went for the Gamecocks. And instead of entering a 13-day break for exams with a losing record and little confidence, they are 5-4 and have five consecutive winnable games before the SEC starts.

And by the way, the SEC looks increasingly winnable too. But more on that another day.

(Semi-related side note: Expect the basketball program to beg me not to attend any more nonconference road games. I missed the Philadelphia trip because my very able colleague at The State, Pat Obley, was there doing a feature on Joe Frazier. So in the two seasons I’ve been covering the Gamecocks, they are 3-1 in road nonconference games I don’t cover, and 1-3 in the ones I do. On a slow night, that stat makes Sportscenter.)

Obviously, it’s too early to be thinking about NCAA tournament bids, as it was way too early after the loss to Clemson to throw in the towel on the season. This Gamecock team still has plenty of questions and every player, save maybe one, has plenty to work on. So with the exam break upon us, here’s my breakdown on how each Gamecock has performed thus far, and what to expect.

Devan Downey: What can you say about the now-star point guard? He has taken control of the team, and looks like a realistic candidate to put a second straight Gamecock on the All-SEC first team. And while some in the program weren’t crazy about his post-Clemson comments, they showed fire and may be the kick-in-the-pants his team needed.

That said, all is not perfect for the sophomore. Coach Dave Odom thinks Downey’s defense is lacking, despite all the steals. And Downey committed the foul in the final seconds that gave Providence the chance to force overtime. But all in all, the kid from Chester is showing why OJ Mayo called him the toughest guy he ever guarded.

Zam Fredrick II: I’ve really been impressed with how Fredrick has handled his offensive role. He didn’t start the season gun-slinging, deferring to his teammates until it was obvious he was needed. Even then, he eschewed the 3-point shot and got his points attacking the basket, particularly in Orlando. Now he’s stroking the 3 a little more, and is averaging 16.1 points a game, second only to Downey.

But like Downey, Fredrick’s defense needs to get better. His nine steals are second on the team (Downey has 31), but at 6-foot he will be undersized against most opponents, and other teams have been able to shoot over and around him.

Mike Holmes: Any more questions about why the Gamecocks wanted him so badly? Holmes is the aforementioned player who doesn’t have much to work on. He’s no NBA player yet, but for a true freshman with nine games under his belt, USC can’t ask for much more. He’s leading the team in rebounds (7.1 per game) despite only averaging 24 minutes a game, and is fourth in scoring at 9.7 points per game. And, from everything we can tell, he has kept his nose clean and his temper in check.

Holmes occasionally forces it on offense in the post, but he makes up for it with offensive tip-backs. Look for him to average a few more minutes a game when the SEC season starts.

Sam Muldrow: The other freshman post player the team has been pleased with. They wanted defense and rebounding from the 6-9 kid from Florence, and they’re getting it to the tune of 5.7 rebounds a game and 17 blocks.

Where Muldrow can improve is his offense. He looks tentative with the ball around the basket and his free throw stoke (11-for-12) shows he can shoot. But I suspect we won’t see much from Muldrow on the offensive end until later this season, if at all, because the staff doesn’t want to put too much on his shoulders.

Dominique Archie: The redshirt sophomore has been the big mystery man so far. Archie was the team’s leading returning scorer, but is only averaging 9.1 points a game, around last year’s average. He also has 15 turnovers, a lot for a guy who doesn’t play a lot on the wing. Pat Obley, upon seeing the Gamecocks in Philadelphia, said one of his biggest impressions of the team was how much better it could be if Archie asserted himself.

My impression is Archie is still feeling out his role. He expected to be a small forward, but has remained in the “4″ spot the majority of the time. It’s important that Archie finds himself, as he has the potential to be the biggest matchup problem for opponents.

Brandis Raley-Ross: Mr. 3-pointer himself. He’s going to cool off at some point, but what’s encouraging for South Carolina is almost all of those shots have been open and part of the offense. But – broken-record alert – Raley-Ross can improve his defense. And unlike Downey and Fredrick it’s not only the team defense aspect; Raley-Ross has three steals, less than even Holmes and Muldrow.

Dwayne Day: Basically the team’s seventh starter, Day has emerged as the team’s defensive stopper (which isn’t saying much), a big reason he has started three games in Raley-Ross’ place. What Day has yet to do is put up a flurry of points as he occasionally did last year, not that he’s been afraid to shoot when open. He could also stand to try a few more dribble penetration baskets.

Evka Baniulis: The sophomore is the third man off the bench, but only when necessary, as he never played in the Providence win. I think USC could play Baniulis a lot more for his 3-point shooting. Yes, he gets lost on defense a lot. But he’s a 6-7 jump-shooter, and you can get a lot of production out of that. It’s just a matter of how much Odom wants to sacrifice on the other end.

Chad Gray: I’ll have a story in next week’s paper that will go into more detail on Gray’s trouble in getting onto the court this season. The staff believes he needs to work harder in practice, and Gray says he understands and is taking heart. The four post-Baylor games will be key for the sophomore, as well as the other players currently out of the seven-man rotation. That’s when they should get their chance to show improvement, and whether they have the staff’s confidence to get key SEC minutes.

Mitchell Carter: He’s not red-shirting, but will the team’s tallest player end up playing more than the 31 minutes he did last season? The foot injury that kept him out of the first six games set him back and he’s out of the rotation. He should get some minutes after the exam break. But while Odom’s preseason goal for Carter was 8-10 minutes a game, I’d say it’s only half-that now.

Austin Steed: The freshman has made such an impression that I forgot to include him on this original list. My bad. Steed has yet to play in one of the team’s critical games, and right now is just behind Gray and Baniulis in the competition for minutes at forward. He can play either forward spot, but in order to play more he needs to show an ability to rebound and play good defense against the better competition. He’s not there quite yet.

Branden Conrad: Remember when the walk-on was supposed to be Downey’s backup? Well, not so much, as Downey is only getting one-minute rests, if that, in close games. And when Downey sits, Fredrick has moved over to the point. I’m not sure the Gamecocks can keep that up; the question is whether they continue to play Fredrick there, or feel Conrad can play the point for two-to-three minutes every half.

Trevor Deloach: The 6-4 guard from Saluda is still on track to redshirt, which is good for a program that only signed one player (forward Darius Morrow) during the fall signing period.

Dave Odom: I’d say this blog has gone on long enough, wouldn’t you? If I evaluated the coaching, I’d either be roasted behind the scenes or on here by the legions of fan critics. So I’ll just end things here and leave that to my ol’ buddy Ron Morris.

Happy holidays!