The path to a bid
Yup, I’m bringing it back. The NCAA chances needle is back, baby!
Critical numbers: Overall record of 13-8, SEC record of 4-3, RPI of 61, schedule strength of 27. Record vs. RPI top 50: 3-4.
Best wins: vs. Kentucky (RPI rank of 3), vs. Richmond (37), vs. South Florida (46).
Worst losses: vs. Miami (85), at Boston College (97), at Wofford (105).
Yeah, I’ve got the chances kind of low, especially considering South Carolina is now among the last four out on two respected bracket projections: Jerry Palm’s CollegeRPI.com site, and Bracketlogy 101 on FoxSports.com. (Although the Gamecocks aren’t among the first eight out on ESPN.com’s Joe Lunardi’s bracket.)
The reason is simple: Because of the nonconference performance, USC probably still needs to get to 11 or 12 total wins in the SEC, including the tournament. While the Gamecocks are off to a good start, going 4-3 with the win over Kentucky, the remaining schedule is a doozy.
Let’s say the goal is to get to nine or 10 wins in regular season play. I break it down into three categories: 1. Games that will be very, very tough and if USC wins, it adds a Kentucky-like win to its resume. 2. Swing games that will be critical. 3. Games that absolutely have to be wins.
1. Resume-building games (3): at Tennessee, at Kentucky, at Vanderbilt. … Win any of these, and the path to a bid is so much easier.
2. Swing games (4): vs. Florida, at Arkansas, vs. Tennessee, vs. Mississippi State. … If USC doesn’t get any wins from the first category, they have to win three of these four, perhaps all of them.
3. Must wins (2): at Georgia, vs. Alabama. … A loss in either of these would cancel out a win in the first category, or force the team to win all the swing games.
So can it be done? It’s still an uphill climb, but the bottom line is this team has Devan Downey. And as we’ve seen, with him you can’t rule anything out.
12 Comments to “The path to a bid”
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State newspaper sports writer Seth Emerson blogs on University of South Carolina basketball and baseball.
I think 10 percent is pretty realistic at this point. Schedule is so tough and it’s going to be difficult to win many of these games. You can figure we will win at least 3 more no matter how bad the majority of the team plays because Downey will win that many on his own if needed. But it’s difficult to predict much better than 7-9 or 8-8 and that just won’t get it done. Thanks Seth!
Never count out DD
How many NCAA tournament bids do Devan Downey teams have? How many NCAA tournament wins do his teams have? How many state championships did Devan Downeys teams win?
Thanks for bringing back the ol’ dance-o-meter Seth. I think you made a big hit with this last year.
GO COCKS!
man that meter is annoying. the arrow doesn’t even line up with the numbers–
Jacksonville University is also faring well in their ASun conference, so that could end up helping as well if JU wins the conf. tournament.
Will this quality comment help win some Margaritaville tix?
What will be interesting as the season progresses is how USC’s record matches up against UNC’s record – right now UNC is 13-9 (2-5 in the ACC)while USC is 13-8. Will UNC get a bid with a worse record than USC? – or with the same overall record? College of Charleston beat both! As for Devan Downey – he is doing all that he can to help USC secure a bid – but as John Wooden would remind us – “Basketball is a team game.”
USC’s problem with a tough schedule is exactly where we were for the last 2 weeks of last season. It’s all in front of the team if they want to step up and take a shot at some of these games, and if not no one can say we got screwed or cheated.
Terrific job Seth of disecting the Gamecocks very difficult road ahead. The fact of the matter is Coach Horn and Co. simply need to win and win often! I will agree, after watching this season anything is possible with Devan Downey leading the charge. All we can do is wish them well. As a side note recently I’ve been reading a lot of comments compairing UNC basketball with Gamecocks basketball… 2 words… STOP IT! There is no comparison, last year , this year, or the next. It’s like compairing Southern Cal football and its legacy to UNC football… 2 totally different brands.
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“Will UNC get a bid with a worse record than USC? –or with the same overall record? College of Charleston beat both!”
Not quite the same. NC played Tex, Mich St, Syr, Ohio St, and KY out of conf. Plus they play in a much tougher league. And they are the defending champs and while that shouldn’t matter, it will play a part if they’re a bubble team.
College of Charleston hasn’t played the Gamecocks this year so I don’t know what “College of Charleston beat Both!” means.